Stocks : Crypto both sinking like Titanic. any opinions

[BeerParticipant 11832]

Gravel Pit wrote:

they didn’t see 2009 coming, atleast not enough of them to stop it from happening.

Some people saw it coming in got out in time. Most didn’t. Between the last big bust and the next one, whenever it may be, many different “pros” have already called many different major market declines, and if you listened to them and pulled out vs just staying in, you’d have lost money because they’ve all been wrong thus far…but of course its easy to forget all the false predictions when they routinely prove to be wrong. Just for example, remember when it was doomsday all over the news because Trump got elected, the markets were supposed to have some epic crash…and the next day, they shot up? Glad I didn’t listen to people calling that one.

Of course its easy to look back after the fact and say wow, they didn’t see that coming, but if you can reliably call them going forward you should be the richest guy on Wall Street at some point in your life.

Handsome Vic wrote:

This may be the first pull-back millennial investors have seen after a 10-year bull market, so far it’s a pretty reasonable correction and should be expected in response to rate tightening after years of easy-money policy.

Pretty much this. I’m a millennial and remember the mortgage meltdown well and related market crash well. In fact…I managed to buy my condo about a year before real estate prices imploded lol.

I had a few coworkers at the time panic and re-allocate their 401ks out of stocks and into stable funds. They ended up missing out on the recovery. If they just stayed in and continued making contributions they’d have averaged down their break even point and ended up back in the black in less than two years. Of course it looks nice looking back at charts saying man…if I sold there and bought there, I’d have made a fortune, but if it was that easy to know the buy point and the sell point a year ahead of time everyone would be doing it.

The other thing is during that crash, it was easy to understand why it was happening. People were over leveraged on houses and walking away, banks were getting crushed, people weren’t spending, and jobs were evaporating. Whats going on now…unemployment is the lowest its been since the 60s, wage growth is pretty much the highest its been since I’ve been a working age adult, and companies earnings reports have been solid the last few quarters with no reason for much change in the immediate future. Doesn’t make any sense to me that we’d have a massive, sustained stock crash while the economy is humming along. Maybe a little pullback just because money moves around, its part of the game, but so long as everything else remains solid all the money people pulled out of the market last week will just end up finding its way back in.

Personally I view market performance more so in terms of time between new highs rather than arbitrarily calling yearly performance based on Jan 1 – Jan 1 of the next year. We’ve hit new highs this year, we’ve had several pullbacks, its normal, the market never moves in a straight line. If we have a flash crash in December and set a new high 2 months later its going to look bad if you want to look at your yearly % of change for the year, but in reality you are doing just fine.

Handsome Vic wrote:

when most market activity is driven by machines

This is huge. Various holders set up stop losses now that everything is computerized. For people that don’t know you can set a price on a stock you held to automatically sell when it hits that price…so say you have a stock that is worth 35 bucks, and you set a stop loss for 32, it will auto sell should the stock hit 32. The problem is a lot of people set these now, and it has a domino effect. All the people set for 32 auto sell…maybe it drops the price down to 31.50…then all the people set between 31.99 and 31.50 auto sell, etc, and pretty soon you got a stock that got beat down without any logic or reason behind it.

Vajra Varaha wrote:

Most s~~~ companies were wiped out back then like most of these s~~~ coins are now.
But the real ones from the dot com era, now are worth a fortune. Not gonna push any coin here.

The thing is the “real” companies from the dot com era were the companies that were also backed by some sort of legitimate business that ended up turning out profits, and not just hype. When you look at Bitcoin for example, its not a representation of ownership in anything useful or valuable, its all hype. Maybe blockchain has some useful characteristics, but blockchain can work just fine without Bitcoin, and Bitcoin doesn’t actually do anything to monetize blockchain.

[The Batman 2020Participant 2112]

Buy low sell high.

Your 20's are for learning, your 30's are for earning.

[Anonymous 1]

Gravel Pit wrote:

I’m a little more skeptical about Boomers retiring. One point I’d say, is that Millennials do not replace Boomers one for one, not even close. Also, (sad to say about my own generation) but Millennials are not replacing Boomer’s jobs one for one either. Important jobs are being lost, not for lack of needing those fields, but because no man to fill the position, or no one interested or apprenticed to fill the role. I think GDP is going to grind to a halt. Birthrate is GONE.

I agree with you completely on that one.

I’m the same age as you and Crypto was the one thing I was hoping could pull me up financially. Like the boomers had at our age money in the bank and cash to spend. I held through all of 2017 and told myself its a long term investment don’t cash out now. Then 2018 happened and my dreams died with it.

Millennials are serfs. Serfs up dude!!! Try and have a sense of humor about it. We will never retire. We will work all our lives and never own s~~~. Paying for the debts of a previous generation that wanted “free s~~~” and the politicians that were so happy to give it to them.

[BeerParticipant 11832]

Anonymous wrote:

I held through all of 2017 and told myself its a long term investment don’t cash out now. Then 2018 happened and my dreams died with it.

The S&P index was up 19.4% last year…and as of right now its down 1.4% this year. I don’t know where you’ve got your money but averaged out over the last 2 years that is still 9% a year…a lot more people, millennials included, are making money in the market than losing it. 2000-2002 we had three years in a row with double digit declines, 1 year being down 1.4% is nothing.

[Anonymous 1]

Beer wrote:

1 year being down 1.4% is nothing.

I’m talking about Crypto not the stock market. I’m down 95% from last year and yes that is a devastating blow.

[Gravel PitParticipant]

I hear you Wizard’s Pupil. Im also down considerably. I dollar cost averaged into Crypto exatly 12 months now. Even with the spread out entry into it. (putting roughly $9000 in over all). Im down over 70% … HODLing was not a good strategy at all.

The only people that made money in crypto this year were in CASH the whole time and playing bounces, then they go back to all cash.

Our strategy of buying in over time and Holding … well obviously we got rekt. Luckily Im not down 98% because Cardano was my main hold. The DCA saved me a little pain but still, hindsight is very BITTER at this point.

If I had just saved my money all year and then bought in after Nov 11th… I could be holding about 250,000 ADA Cardano instead of a measly 70,000. That hurts.

Im actually all in Tether right now. Totally faithless in a recovery and I put in a low ball Limit Order, hoping ADA will drop to a clean 2 cents. I never listened all year to the people who said Bitcoin was just gonna keep going lower. Well, its a little late now to believe them but the f~~~ers are saying its going to go to $2500… that means my ADA order at 2 cents will probably fill. That will make me marginally happier lol. I will then put my 100,000 ADA back into Daedallus for cold storage and wait until that trash is worth a million lol

I relate to your pain brother. We both got rekted. Im down $7000 …. for a guy that makes 32,000 a year salary, that is brutal

[Anonymous 1]

Gravel Pit wrote:

Im down over 70% … HODLing was not a good strategy at all.

No not a good strategy at all. This was my first time I tried HODLing for the long term. I’ve been in crypto since 2014. Always trading up until last year. I said to myself crypto has been a great investment so far I need to start thinking of the long term. I was getting eaten up by capital gains tax 30% and upwards.

This was back in summer 2017. I decided to hold for over a year go for longterm gains. Boy was that a mistake. Fast forward a year and its summer 2018. I’m down big time over last year and paying a mountain of taxes for 2017 gains. Now all of the gains I have ever made off crypto have gone straight to the IRS and my stack is so greatly reduced in value right now even if I sold everything I wouldn’t be able to pay the taxes I owe from last year.

I’ll be very lucky if I end up breaking even after all of this is said and done. Stupidest mistake I have ever made so far was not selling in January 2018 when I was up over %1000 on my principle. All I can do is laugh it off. You know what they say “Easy come easy go.”

[Gravel PitParticipant]

F~~~ign REKT crypto market. People jumpin out windows for xmas and robbing the Salvation Army truck

[Gravel PitParticipant]

this thread gets older and older, the stocks keep falling…

Its that same old question, “do I hold and wait for the recovery bounce?” or “should I sell now and wait for the bottom to be confirmed?”

I though crypto would be a safe investment, especially during this last summer when we’d already seen the worst supposedly. I kept “dollar cost averaging in” buying more every payday… then in November, the so-called “bottom” that was “impenetrable” broke like a twig and I lost $2000 in 1 week….

What happened to me in 2018… 12 months of BEAR trend…. 90% reduction from all time high… that is what I think is about to happen to the DOW and S&P.

CALL ME CRAZY… is there not a Bear trend already formed???? 3 months of lower lows, lower highs. When do people finally admit, we’re in for a big one?

They don’t understand, PANIC is already setting in. It’s unavoidable. THIS WEEK, you will see a new lower low as MORE people sell. Its that simple.

I wouldn’t touch stocks or any of that with a ten foot pole. Id be all in cash or perhaps, the metals yall always swear by…

I made some costly mistakes in crypto this month (missed the bottom, missed a $1000 gain) but Im waiting for one more nasty pull back and I will continue DCA in. Crypto FTW, atleast its a safer bet than the NASDAQ right now… crypto already had a 12 month bear cycle.

[BeerParticipant 11832]

Gravel Pit wrote:

Its that same old question, “do I hold and wait for the recovery bounce?” or “should I sell now and wait for the bottom to be confirmed?”

The problem is the bottom isn’t confirmed until you have already missed the recovery.

[TicParticipant 4329]

Beer wrote:

Nope. Despite what happens today, tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year, my plan remains the same. Continue investing money, continue reinvesting dividends, leave my money invested, and play it long term.

I think that’s the smart move.

you should be happy when prices drop. Why? its a buying opportunity. Of course, we don’t know when the bottom hits.

I learned the hard way. Anytime I sold, those stocks eventually went up and I lost money. If I had stuck with it, I would have been fine. More than fine.

Look at the trends. markets go up. eventually. playing the long game is the right move.

I’ve missed so many times on buying opportunities. I could have made some serious money. But, Im looking at it over a 10 year period. Not, 6 months or 1 yr.

I liked some of this guy’s videos. He seems intelligent and to the point.

God bless peace and freedom.

[743 roadmasterParticipant]

It is just like when tech stocks ruled the market for a short term. Almost all of them went into serious over pricing……then it all crashed. The survivors are the ones you see in the market now.
Crypto has to crash and wash out a lot of new people. The ones left with market share will have to push the currency from the trading room to the street,…..only then will the real survivors step forward.

mgtow is its own worst enemy- https://www.campusreform.org/

[BeerParticipant 11832]

Tic wrote:

I think that’s the smart move.

you should be happy when prices drop. Why? its a buying opportunity. Of course, we don’t know when the bottom hits.

I learned the hard way. Anytime I sold, those stocks eventually went up and I lost money. If I had stuck with it, I would have been fine. More than fine.

Look at the trends. markets go up. eventually. playing the long game is the right move.

I’ve missed so many times on buying opportunities. I could have made some serious money. But, Im looking at it over a 10 year period. Not, 6 months or 1 yr.

I started dabbling in stocks in 08 as the crash was starting. I made a little money on some trades and I lost on some trades. Unfortunately, I didn’t have a long term outlook then and was just trying to make a quick buck. Fast forward 10 years…every single stock I touched in 08-09 is much higher right now or has merged or been bought out with a deal that would have been a nice profit per share for me. I’d have been much better off just buying and holding back then than trying to be some hot shot trader thinking I’d make a killing.

Historically if you look at a 10 year or 20 year period, this is how it works a huge majority of the time…I don’t know why I’d expect the next 10 or 20 to be any different, so I’ll just buckle in, go for a ride, and eventually I’ll hit a point where I have all the money I need. A quote I’ve often heard kicked around by various financial people is “Time in the market beats timing the market.”

Tic wrote:

I liked some of this guy’s videos. He seems intelligent and to the point.

That guy looks at it like I do as well. I’ve been pretty serious with the buy and hold for about 5 years now, and I’ll only buy dividend payers. I’ll be in the red on share prices this year, however 3 out of the 4 companies I’m holding right now have already announced dividend increases for early next year, and the one that hasn’t will probably do it midway through the year. I find it hard to care about short term fluctuations in share prices as my dividend income is growing, and all the companies I’m holding are on track to have higher EPS in 2018 than they did 2017, so a short term dip is really just more speculation, fear, and overall market movement than it is fundamentals right now. In other words…its a buying opportunity. Even if we drop another 20%, eventually the markets will recover, the markets will make new highs, and we’ll just look back at the dip(maybe we’ve already seen the bottom, maybe we haven’t, I really don’t know any more than the next guy) as a great time to have bought shares.

Lots of people lost a ton of money in the 08/09 crash because they panicked and pulled money out near the bottom and missed part of the recovery. People that just stayed in and contributed more came out of it in better shape than ever. I know what strategy I want to roll with.

[Gravel PitParticipant]

Beer wrote:

The problem is the bottom isn’t confirmed until you have already missed the recovery.

exactly… and there is nothing worse than that feeling. I keep selling on the bottom, expected a new bottom. I win half the time but when I lose at that game it sucks bigtime, I missed a big bounce. Im not a very god trader lol.

[BeerParticipant 11832]

Gravel Pit wrote:

exactly… and there is nothing worse than that feeling. I keep selling on the bottom, expected a new bottom. I win half the time but when I lose at that game it sucks bigtime, I missed a big bounce. Im not a very god trader lol.

You know whats f~~~ed up, when you win half the time you still lose because Uncle Sam wants his 1/3 all the times you do win…so really you gotta win more than 2/3 of the time to actually win.

Tradings tough. Most people will lose at it. If there was an easy way to get rich tomorrow, next month, or next year…we’d all be doing it. The fact is most of the “professional” traders on Wall Street have a hard time even beating index funds consistently. If guys that stare at this s~~~ 60 hours a week can’t consistently do it, its pretty doubtful an average guy like you or I can.

I started doing a lot better in the markets when I stopped thinking like a trader and started thinking like an investor. Watch the video Tic posted, that guy makes a lot of sense. Think 10 or 20 years out, not 6 months. When you have a longer outlook, diversify, and stay invested it becomes a lot easier to shrug off a bad year when you’ve had a few good years prior to, and know you’ll have more good years in the future.

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