Washington & Allies start Regime Change in Armenia

[Y_Participant 4591]

Washington & Allies start Regime Change in Armenia [1] [2] [3]

Tom Luongo / Tyler Durden
Zerohedge
Leonid Bershidsky
Bloomberg
25th April 2018

After 11 days of mass protests and violent clashes over the perceived power-grab following the outgoing Armenian President’s election to Prime Minister, Serzh Sargsyan has resigned and police have released opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan.

“The people are against my rule,” Sargsyan, who took office as prime minister after serving as Armenia’s president for 10 years, said in a statement.

“I am leaving my post”

For 10 years, Sargsyan had been Armenia’s president. A native of Nagorno Karabakh, disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan, he rose in the 1990s to become the breakaway region’s defense minister and eventually to occupy the same position in Armenia. The Karabakh issue, important to many Armenians, carried him to victory in the 2008 presidential election.

As president, he played a complex game, letting Russia extend its military presence in Armenia yet also cooperating with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, joining Putin’s pet project the Eurasian Economic Union and signing a partnership agreement with the European Union.

Unlike the leaders of Georgia and Ukraine, who navigated the divide between Russia and the West in much less nuanced ways, Sargsyan was happy to work with anyone except Azerbaijan.

While this stance was geopolitically sound for a small, landlocked country engaged in a festering territorial conflict, Armenia hasn’t done well economically under Sargsyan. It has barely recovered after a 14 percent economic output drop in 2009. Strong economic ties to Russia have been one reason for the slow economic performance, not that Armenia had too many other options.

In 2017, the Armenian economy posted an impressive growth of 7.5 percent, but that was from a low base after almost zero growth in 2016. Through the end of that year, the Armenian economy was tortured by deflation and an anemic domestic demand. The government has consistently run high budget deficits, and unemployment remains above 16 percent.

The Armenian constitution only permits two presidential terms, and in 2015, Sargsyan ran a referendum ostensibly shifting the country to a European-style parliamentary republic run by a prime minister who leads the country as long as his or her party wins elections.

At the time, Sargsyan claimed he didn’t want to become prime minister himself. But in 2017, Sargsyan’s Republican Party won a parliamentary election, and he was elected prime minister last week after his presidential term ran out.

Sargsyan’s election as Prime Minister was largely perceived as a power grab because Sargsyan will largely retain the same powers that he held during his two terms in the Presidential capacity, and took place just after Armenia’s April 9th transition from a presidential system to that of a prime ministerial one.

In response, more than 100,000 Armenians flooded the central square of Yerevan, the nation’s capital, in the biggest rally of the past 20 years. Thousands also took to their balconies to bang on empty saucepans, and thousands more marched in provincial towns.

In total, some 20 percent of the country’s population took part in the protests, led by Nikol Pashinyan, a journalist turned legislator, whose Way Out faction controlled almost 8 percent of the seats in parliament.

Young people were the movement’s driving force: Faced with a choice between emigrating and trying to change things at home, students have, for the first time in decades, chosen the latter option.

Larger Map https://greenevs.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/armenia_map_lg1.jpg

As Bloomberg reports [3], Sargsyan’s announcement came as demonstrators flooded the streets of the capital, Yerevan, for an 11th day on Monday demanding Sargysan’s resignation, and hours after police released opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan from overnight detention.

Pashinyan’s arrest prompted the largest protest to date on Sunday, while scores of troops joined the anti-government movement on Monday [23rd April] for the first time.

But as The Duran’s Frank Sellers [4] detailed previously, this social unrest (and now resignation) has all the markings of a Ukraine-esque Western-backed effort at regime change to once again disrupt Russia.

Western backed Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been heavily involved in post Soviet Armenia’s education system, community and charity works. These NGOs have been selling the public on the perception that Armenia’s economic woes are directly the result of their corrupt, Russia friendly government, as well as Russia itself.

Hence, the concept that Sargsyan’s government has only made matters for the population worse is the grievance upon which much of the unrest hinges.

With Sargsyan seen as being in bed with the Russians, and his further development of Armenia’s ties with Russia, these protests therefore possess a potentially disastrous outcome, both domestically, for the Armenians, and also geopolitically, as it threatens Russia’s position in the region.

Armenia is an important part Russia’s long-term plans. A member of the Eurasian Economic Union, Armenia is key to protecting Russia’s southern flank.

However, Armenia has been playing both sides of the fence in recent years, as it has additionally been moving closer to the European Union, signing itself to a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the European bloc, attempting to deepen diplomacy and economic ties with the West, while simultaneously making commitments to Russia’s economic initiatives in the region.

Russia gets a villainous wrap over the fact that Russia is playing both sides of the Nagorno Karabakh-Azerb conflict, as Russia is the benefactor of both players, the common perception, derived from the propaganda of these NGOs, is that Russia benefits by stoking the conflict.

So, the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh was activated by the U.S. after a brief visit by then Secretary of State John Kerry as punishment for Russia’s intervention into Syria.

Nagorno-Karabakh had been peaceful for more than twenty years before Kerry’s visit. And within days, fighting broke out on the Azeri side of the region which lies between the two countries.

So, as the Neoconservatives take control of the Trump White House they activate a color revolution in Armenia while simultaneously pushing Russia in Ukraine, Syria, the U.K., the financial markets and seemingly everywhere else at the same time.

Color Revolutions created by western NGOs stoke mild opposition to a sitting government and turns it into a lynch mob by escalating the violence in the streets.

And, indeed, this situation has all the markings of a color revolution, as the ring leader for this movement, Nikol Pashinyan, is already calling it a “velvet revolution”, an allusion to the regime change that took place in Czechoslovakia in 1989.

Keep in mind, however, that Sargsyan hasn’t, thus far, broken any law, nor violated the Armenian constitution, so, Pashinyan’s claim against Sargsyan’s legitimacy can only be viewed as a baseless instigation for further violence and an obstinate unwillingness to look for a middle ground scenario, or peaceful resolution to the situation at hand. An unwillingness to compromise satisfies one of the key factors that is commonly seen in many color revolutions.

The situation, in effect, represents a powder keg scenario, with all the elements in place to provoke the necessary popular discontent that would play into an attempt at regime change.

Pashinyan has called upon protesters to obstruct roadways and prevent the opening of governmental offices, and has been so bold as to declare that the Armenian government “no longer holds legitimacy”, and that all government agencies and police personnel should only be obedient to “committees” appointed by his revolution.

The typical manner in which Western backed color revolutions unfold is when a peaceful protest about legitimate grievances are hijacked to become the catalyst for a violent revolution.

If we consider the EuroMaidan revolution that took place in 2014, a peaceful protest turned violent after the slaughter of the “heavenly hundred” by mystery snipers, killing police and protesters both, in order to help the conflict along to a point of no return to peace.

Why would Armenians now begin trashing Turkish stores in Aleppo (that’s right in Syria) over an internal Armenian political matter?

Because it’ll give Turkish President Erdogan an excuse to finish the Armenian genocide (which Erdogan and Israel refuse to acknowledge happened) his predecessors started a hundred years ago.

And the hope is that this provocation will drive a wedge between Turkey and Russia at a time when everyone’s nerves are frayed to the point of breaking.

Turkey announces over the weekend it is repatriating all of its gold from the Federal Reserve vaults in New York.

Iran announces it no longer accepts dollars in its business dealings and switches to the euro for international trade, in preparation for Trump decertifying the JCPOA and re-establishing sanctions from 2012 which includes SWIFT expulsion again.

If Armenia’s government falls here there will be an immediate push to get them into NATO and create an absolute nightmare in the region.

So, that puts everyone in a bind because Russia has to continue backing the existing government which it shares a very strategic military integration with.

Remember, Armenia is a member of the CSTO and has a joint military command agreement with Moscow.

Larger Map https://c1.staticflickr.com/9/8285/7793757798_37fcb7ca5f_b.jpg

So, this coup attempt at this point in time is quite a cynical and inflammatory move in the wake of Azeri elections which sees Russian-Azeri relations continue improving. The latest being a commitment to triple Azeri exports to Russia over the next few years.

Russia has skillfully managed its relationship with both countries under Putin with Armenia obviously the more important of the two strategically since it protects Russia’s southern flank.

And a stable Armenia means a much slower flow of ‘terrorists’ coming into Russia.

Asked on April 19 for a reaction to the Armenian protests, Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, merely expressed a conviction that “the situation in friendly Armenia will be resolved democratically and lawfully.”

Pashinyan interpreted that as a decision not to support Sargsyan, and he was probably right. Given Sargsyan’s decision to resign, there’s no reason to speak of a coup, as official Moscow did after the Ukrainian revolution.

The goal of Syria, among other things, is the creation of a failed state and terrorist stronghold to destabilize the region, including Iraq, Iran and Turkey, but with the ultimate goal of bleeding Russia white over time.

And as each domino falls, the harder it is for Russia to defend its positions in the former Soviet republics. This is why Putin has been so focused on developing stronger defense and economic ties with these countries. He’s been skillful in his diplomacy with Ukbezistan, for example, after the death of its long-time leader Karimov in September of 2016.

The same can be said for how he and Iranian President Rouhani have handled relations with Azerbaijan, despite the open wound of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Sadly, as Sellers concludes, many Armenians are of the persuasion that by changing their government and rejecting Russia as Armenia’s strategic partner, in favour of hopeful Western integration, Armenia will realize greater economic opportunity, and a vastly improved standard of living for the average Armenian.

An about-face with regards to Russia, and an adherence to the West, however, not only fails to present the economic outcome that many Armenians might hope for, but it presents a very real danger in the form of a greater escalation of conflict with its neighbor Azerbaijan, with regards to Nagorno Karabakh, the last such major conflict costed the lives of some 6,000 Armenians, and approximately 30,000 Azeris.

Such a renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan produces results that are simply unpredictable, concerning the geopolitical implications regarding the involvement of Russia and NATO, seeing as Armenia hosts Russian military bases, while Azerbaijan is host to a NATO base, but if the Armenians have broken off its relations with the Russians in the favor of the West, Russian involvement is left in a state of bewilderment, while the conflict devastates Russia’s economic and military perspective in the region. This, therefore, holds the possibility of being the next proxy war between Russia and the West

So, as things ratchet up in Armenia, the question over the next few days will be whether the removal of long-time Russian ally Sargsyan from Armenia politics will be enough to dissipate the current anger.

Citations

[1] https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-24/armenia-heats-proxy-war-continues
[2] https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-23/western-backed-regime-change-looms-armenia-pm-resigns-following-mass-protests
[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-23/armenia-s-revolution-is-a-lesson-for-putin
[4] http://theduran.com/will-armenia-be-the-next-victim-of-western-backed-regime-change/

[Ranger OneParticipant 16836]

The inevitable result of continued provocation and moves against Russia and China and Iran will be to make the SCO (Shanghai-Cooperative Organization) into an eastern counter to NATO.

Kind of a problem when you realize that China wants a blue water navy, and that they are not going to leave the South China sea, that they have local superiority in the near islands, and that they need Taiwan if they are to really project a blue water navy.

I don’t think the US could win a four or five front war (Taiwan, North Korea, Iran, Ukraine). Long term, China’s economy will eclipse the US’s, and they will have the money available to spend on military, sort of how the US outspent Russia during the Reagan years.

I’m not sure we really want to push the Russians into the position of being to China what the UK is to the US.

All my life I've had doubts about who I am, where I belonged. Now I'm like the arrow that springs from the bow. No hesitation, no doubts. The path is clear. And what are you? Alive. Everything else is negotiable. Women have rights; men have responsibilities; MGTOW have freedom. Marriage is for chumps. If someone stands in the way of true justice, you simply walk up behind them and stab them in the heart-R'as al Ghul.

[Y_Participant 4591]

Ranger One wrote:

I don’t think the US could win a four or five front war (Taiwan, North Korea, Iran, Ukraine). Long term, China’s economy will eclipse the US’s, and they will have the money available to spend on military, sort of how the US outspent Russia during the Reagan years.

Thank you for that. Washington have not won a war in Asia since WWII for the simple reason they have no significant proxies in Asia currently to do their dirty work – nor are they likely to.

Korea and Japan do not want another war – regardless of what their leaders say – the defence forces of Asian countries would not engage one another. The memory of WWII is still very relevant in Asian culture.

That only leaves the US and its running dogs UK and Australia. China is at this moment putting into production its hypersonic anti-carrier missiles. It is very very unlikely the Washington has any real options with regard to war in Asia.

Bolton would want to – but I can’t see any Fleet Commander actually carry out attacks on the Chinese peninsula.

[Y_Participant 4591]

I have dusted off my previous post in April 2017 and have found the geopolitical situation and expected rationale for a US-NK/China confrontation to have changed little since then

/forums/topic/us-east-asia-update/

[iMickey503Participant 12465]

Hmm. That kid in Canada who ran with his 4chan party van was armenian. Wonder if there is a connection to this?

You are all alone. If you have been falsely accused of RAPE, DV, PLEASE let all men know about the people who did this. http://register-her.net/web/guest/home

[Y_Participant 4591]

iMickey503 wrote:

Hmm. That kid in Canada who ran with his 4chan party van was armenian. Wonder if there is a connection to this?

Interesting connection to follow up…thank you.

[Ranger OneParticipant 16836]

Hypersonic anti-carrier missiles are a problem for the usual knee-jerk US response of sending carriers to intimidate opponents.

The Sovremmny-class Russian destroyers sold to China equipped with Sunburn missiles (the ones that travel about sea-surface level at several times the speed of sound) that are designed to kill carriers, were already a problem. (I do not know if the Sunburn missiles sold to China were the ones with tactical nuclear warheads)

All my life I've had doubts about who I am, where I belonged. Now I'm like the arrow that springs from the bow. No hesitation, no doubts. The path is clear. And what are you? Alive. Everything else is negotiable. Women have rights; men have responsibilities; MGTOW have freedom. Marriage is for chumps. If someone stands in the way of true justice, you simply walk up behind them and stab them in the heart-R'as al Ghul.

[Y_Participant 4591]

Ranger One wrote:

Hypersonic anti-carrier missiles are a problem for the usual knee-jerk US response of sending carriers to intimidate opponents.

The Sovremmny-class Russian destroyers sold to China equipped with Sunburn missiles (the ones that travel about sea-surface level at several times the speed of sound) that are designed to kill carriers, were already a problem. (I do not know if the Sunburn missiles sold to China were the ones with tactical nuclear warheads)

According to Timperlake & Triplet in “Red Dragon Rising” which I read some time ago – in 2005 I think – yes they have that capability.

[PistolPeteParticipant 27143]

The aircraft carries of today are the battleships of WWII; obsolete and just waiting to be blown up.

Yep the Bismarck was the most powerful battleship afloat in 1941; right up to the moment some rickety old bi-plane’s torpedo jammed her rudder and she was doomed. All it is going to take today is one and only one of these anti-ship missiles to put a 50 yard hole in a carrier to doom them in the same way.

[Ranger OneParticipant 16836]

PistolPete wrote:

All it is going to take today is one and only one of these anti-ship missiles to put a 50 yard hole in a carrier to doom them in the same way.

Very likely.

Unless it is a P-270 Moskit ‘Sunburn’ anti-ship missile carrying a 120-kt nuclear warhead, in which case it might be larger hole than 50 yards.

All my life I've had doubts about who I am, where I belonged. Now I'm like the arrow that springs from the bow. No hesitation, no doubts. The path is clear. And what are you? Alive. Everything else is negotiable. Women have rights; men have responsibilities; MGTOW have freedom. Marriage is for chumps. If someone stands in the way of true justice, you simply walk up behind them and stab them in the heart-R'as al Ghul.

[GregB0Participant]

Y_ wrote:

or the simple reason they have no significant proxies in Asia currently to do their dirty work – nor are they likely to.

Check and an aircraft carrier is NOT an extension of US geo-political power. That would entail an ally to allow U.S. military/non-military resources to be projected from within their national borders.

We have seen what the Phillipines are up to and we absolutely do not want to alienate another national entity. While they all want a cut of the USA GNP, very few are willing to make the sacrifice that allowing USA assetts within their country.

​"​My father didn't tell me how to live; he lived, and let me watch him do it.​" - Clarence Buddinton Kelland

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