The US equity markets are getting ready to roll over.

[MarketWatcherParticipant]

Recently we have seen slight down days on normal volume. I look at the VIX at about 11 and it looks cheap, but protection is not. ETFs and options look relatively expensive. Earnings are looking OK for now, but PE ratios are high compared to historical values. Most concerning is the yield curve flattening despite the recent FED hike. They keep bidding up the 10 year treasury pushing rates lower. Apparently a flight to quality. Markets go down faster than they go up. We are going lower guys…..

/boring Market~~~cher topic over/

[IceBankMiceElfParticipant 124]

Thanx Market~~~cher. I know you’re not paid here and know nothing about your background, but I’ve been looking at some of gains and am tempted to sell and stay in cash for a little while. I want to ask you your thoughts, even though you’ve already said the market is heading downward, as I would assume you have money in the market.

Keep talking!

[RusskyParticipant 13503]

I think it’s always wise to sell right before the tax deadline every year. As soon as all the last minute IRA buyers done buying – markets tend to go down or stagnate until fall. But I’m no expert

proud carrier of the 'why?' chromosome

[MarketWatcherParticipant]

IceBankMiceElf wrote:

I’ve been looking at some of gains and am tempted to sell and stay in cash for a little while

No one has ever been hurt by taking a profit. I never let short term moves influence my long term dividend paying holdings. In the long run don’t bet against the market and maintain your core portfolio. I do think that stocks will go on sale soon because the market hates uncertainty. Look up yield curve and you will see where we are going.

[MarketWatcherParticipant]

Russky wrote:

I think it’s always wise to sell right before the tax deadline every year. As soon as all the last minute IRA buyers done buying – markets tend to go down or stagnate until fall. But I’m no expert

Actually that is very expert of you. The calendar is one of my most important investment tools. You must know what happens when; even if it “looks” simple.

[Hombre LibreParticipant 261]

Hmmm maybe buy more gold now ?

HL

[MarketWatcherParticipant]

Hombre Libre wrote:

Hmmm maybe buy more gold now ?

Hold what you have because you bought it on sale. /Good job brother!/ Gold gets complicated when you look at currency and interest rate risk. It pays you nothing except appreciation. That being said, it is part of a diversified portfolio.

[MarketWatcherParticipant]

And today we find………….

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/us-markets.html

[BeerParticipant 11832]

I’m thinking what may cause a nice dip with the current environment is if Trump/the republicans introduce a tax reform bill that ends up like the healthcare bill they proposed and has no chance of passing in its initial form. It seems like tax breaks got priced into the market prematurely and they’ll get priced out just as fast if they are threatened.

[MarketWatcherParticipant]

Beer wrote:

I’m thinking what may cause a nice dip with the current environment is if Trump/the republicans introduce a tax reform bill that ends up like the healthcare bill they proposed and has no chance of passing in its initial form. It seems like tax breaks got priced into the market prematurely and they’ll get priced out just as fast if they are threatened.

I agree. The tax reform is the uncertainty I spoke of earlier. If it goes to crap as the media will play it out anyway, then we will see a market pull back. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

[Y_Participant 4591]

Thank you for the insight.

[Back in BlackParticipant 1732]

MW,

Do you rely more on fundamental or technical analysis? I am curious as I have little faith in the numbers put out nowadays. For me the markets technicals are easier to understand.

BIB

"Women are directly adapted to act as the nurses and educators of our early childhood, for the simple reason that they themselves are childish, foolish, and short-sighted—in a word, are big children all their lives, something intermediate between the child and the man, who is a man in the strict sense of the word. Consider how a young girl will toy day after day with a child, dance with it and sing to it; and then consider what a man, with the very best intentions in the world, could do in her place.” Quote from Arthur Shopenhauer, 17th century philosopher

[MarketWatcherParticipant]

Back in Black wrote:

Do you rely more on fundamental or technical analysis?

I use a combination of both. I like to look at volume as confirmation that my fundamental analysis is correct. Of course this is only used on short term trades. In the long run fundamentals are the way to go. I will only sell a long term position if the company has had a change in their business model or a change in the economic environment that will effect long term earnings growth.

Back in Black wrote:

I have little faith in the numbers put out nowadays

Sadly, that makes two of us.

[Author]

Posts