Home › Forums › MGTOW Central › Risk Analysis: Healthy Risk VS Unhealthy Risk
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Anonymous 1 year, 8 months ago.
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There’s no right or wrong answer, I’m just curious to hear some individual opinions here.
The MGTOW man is risk adverse to modern women for reasons we all know of. My question here is beyond women, how does a MGTOW man rationalize new risks vs stagnation.
I hear the following alot: “80% of restaurants fail within the first 5 years.” I suppose this is technically higher than the current divorce rate (Lol). Then there’s others that are a mixed bag: Buying a Jeep, skydiving, traveling to the UK, buying a dog, changing jobs, accepting a promotion…
How do you as an individual analyze risks in your life? Do you apply similar MGTOW principles to these risks, or compartmentalize them differently?
They/we apply mgtow principles across all areas of life.
But each man, doing his individal mgtow thing, has different standards and different levels of risks for a whole variety of valid reasons. age, health, wealth, ability, know-how, etc.
Women want everything, but want responsibility and accountability for nothing.
Life is short
Take risks
(And, FYI – My Jeep has 178k miles on it, runs like it did at 10k miles and does not require a road to drive on. And regarding planes: Landing in them is for betas)
Anonymous1I use percentages with everything though still choose not to hear a helmet when hiding a motorcycle. I chose to move t Mexico because I didn’t want to stagnate as I become an old man. Sometimes you just say f~~~ the risk. Get busy living or get busy dying.
Anonymous3Life is not without risk. When you have any kind of control about the situation, then you can take risks: you can prepare, you can avoid, you can minimize.
Buying a Jeep, skydiving, traveling to the UK, buying a dog, changing jobs, accepting a promotion…
Buying a Jeep: testdrive, read reviews, ask friends.
Skydiving: follow the rules, think on safety.
Traveling to the UK: learn about where you are going, buy a map.
Buying a dog: learn about dog breads.
Changing jobs: dont quit before you have something else lined up.
Accepting a promotion: be sure that you can do the job…There is always something you can do… Except with women, nothing you can do will give you lasting peace with them.
Risk these days is viewed too much through the prism of gynocentric society -risk = bad, protect the poor women and children from the bad risk by regulating all things.
Nothing risked, nothing gained. Fortuna iuvat fortibus as the Romans used to say -Roughly translated “Fortune helps the brave” All innovation and all growth comes from someone taking a chance and trying something. The important thing is to wisely weigh risk versus rewards.
This is only learned by practise and thought -it takes both. A boy should be allowed to ride bikes without a helmet, climb trees, camp in the mountains and shoot. He will get into scrapes but the risk of his being killed or killing anyone else is actually very low. The likelihood of his learning self reliance and learning his limits and leaning about sensible risk levels from critically looking at his mistakes is high, so it is worthwhile. That boy should also be taught to use his brain and weigh up probabilities. He should be taught that big b~~~~ are useless with a big brain too. He should also stretch his mind, so that he can learn both to back himself and criticise himself.
A healthy risk has a potential reward that appears to be worth the risk. It is as simple as that. A dangerous pastime may be character building in a young man, so it is worthwhile. An older man addicted to a dangerous pursuit, spending all his time and money on it is a loser. I write as a retired rock climber who misses it daily and still dreams in his sleep of unclimbed lines on big faces but who knows life is lived down here not up there and has not climbed for pleasure in over a decade. There is no reward but the pleasure in mountaineering and that is not enough to offset the risk. However I work at height almost daily, that pays, so it is worth it.
I think healthy versus unhealthy risk is an intelligent and challenging question for a MGHOW because entitled yet unaccountable modern western woman is one of the risks in a man’s life and yet children are the greatest reward in life, a man must ask himself about what level of risk is healthy when it comes to women in view of the rewards of children. I don’t think the subject of risk can be touched on without talking of women.
Marry a woman and you are more likely to get divorce raped -50%? than loved, cherished and obeyed in a happy marriage -10%? Therefore never marry a woman. The risk is too great. Likewise never invest in a woman’s house or business and never make a woman a loan. Never emotionally rely on one. Their entitlement and unaccountability make them far too great a risk.
Have “safe” sex with women casually and you are far more likely to waste your resources pleasing women than you are to gain any new resources in return for your temporary pleasure 99%? -therefore personally I would not do this. Have real sex with a healthy woman you admire and value and you are pretty likely to get a child. This is 100% going to cost you money but being a father is worth the cost. That is a risk I have taken several times and which is worth it. I might even take it again one day, though I have enough children to care for these days. That’s my personal take on it.
Finally, from someone who has made a living out of taking physical risk, when it comes to risk never forget your perception of risk and reward are subjective. You must strive to overcome your natural subjectivity. It is impossible to entirely do this but to not strive to do this is perhaps the greatest risk of all. To be over timid just because you are inexperienced and naturally timid is folly. To believe you are invulnerable because you have passed though an apprenticeship of risk and suffered trial by fire is dumb too. To over value the reward because you want it so much is dumb and to over fear the risk and deny yourself the reward is also dumb.
Risk is business of constant calculation and recalculation (more honestly estimation not calculation). First and foremost before you decide whether or not to hazard anything, as the oracle of Delphi used to advise those who came seeking advice “know yourself”. Risk is a mirror in which a man will see himself very well if he has the wisdom to look critically
A woman is like fire -fun to play with, can warm you through and cook your food, needs constant feeding, can burn you and consume all you own
I think most MGTOW are red-pilled in other areas other than gynocracy, misandry, etc..
Like many red-pilled people, I prep a little, keep my eye on things going on in the world and my country, using varied, and trusted news sources.
I also pay attention to the BS news reports and things coming out of the media intended to sway public opinion, because public opinion tends to sway public policy.
Because of the swaying of public policy in my country and others,
after retirement in 5 years, I intend to move to a second or third world economy and try to lay low there as long as my retirement money will continue to flow there.Stagnation is a state of mind. If you think that is what you are then almost nothing you do will help change that situation.
mgtow is its own worst enemy- https://www.campusreform.org/
the variables are the stakes, the odds and the payoff. I need at least two of these three to be favorable if I am to participate. The lottery has enormous risk. You’re almost guaranteed to lose. But stakes are low at only 2$ a ticket, and payoff is enormous. As long as you buy only a few tickets a year and keep the stakes very low, it’s reasonable.
The stock market: over enough time, its return is around 10% per year. So the payoff is good if you have time. Stakes are higher than 2$ as most brokerage accounts have minimums, and even a single share of most stocks is more than 2$. But odds historically are good, and with payoff at 10% per year, the higher stakes is acceptable.
Real Estate has higher investment stakes, but lower risk as it doesn’t fluctuate as violently as the stock market, and the returns/tax advantages are good.
Motorcycles: Very high stakes (your life), and not very good odds. Veteran riders will say the only two types of motorcycle riders are those that have been in a crash, and those that are going to be. The payoff is a great thrill, but is only 1 of 3 variables that is favorable.
By contrast, marriage has terrible odds. Chance of succeeding at it are less than a coin toss (50%). The stakes are ENORMOUS: your home, your kids, possibly your freedom, half your savings and assets and often a chunk of future earnings. And if you happen to be lucky enough to win, the payoff is marginal at best. You probably get a retired carousel rider who will make your (married) life miserable, but doesn’t bring anything to the table you could not have already had.
I prefer to have 3 of these variables in my favor. Sometimes I have to settle for only 2 of the 3. When younger and reckless, I accepted 1 of 3 occasionally. But I have ALWAYS withdrawn from risks offering 0 of 3 variables in my favor.
Look, it's not my fault that tornado dropped a house on your sister. Now get back on your broom and get your ass out of here... and take your monkeys with you
I read this shortly after my breakup:
“Living the same day over and over again for 40 years isn’t a life’
Made me think back to my 8 year relationship and how stagnant it was. The same s~~~ over and over again every month. We lived apart so she’d call the same time everyday. In a month we’d have a couple of date nights, a night out, brunch, shopping, chilling, takeaways etc etc. The usual stuff. BORING.
Now I live life on my terms I have better stories to tell and greater experiences BECAUSE I do different things and take greater risks. I’m forced to because I’m not ‘tied’ to a woman who was going nowhere and never wanted to try new things. I ALSO have the money now to do so!
Without risk you PUT YOURSELF AT RISK of an average life. You have to try new things to grow and there will always be an element of ‘unknown’ involved.
I try to make progress in my life EVERYDAY one way or the other. If that involves an element of risk then so be it. At the end of the day, as a young man (27) Whats the worst that can happen? I have VERY MINIMAL needs and i’ll never be on the street or unable to eat. I appreciate a simple life and that’s one of the benefits.
That well known Tony Stark quote: “I’m a Genius, Billionaire, Playboy, Philanthropist” resonates with me daily.
Genius – What can I do today to improve my skillset, talents or broaden my outlook on life?
Billionaire – What can I do today to earn more money?
Playboy – What can I do that will improve my lifestyle? Travel? Workout? Connect with a friend?
Philanthropist – What can I do to GIVE back to those less fortunate?If I can tick off one of those each day – albeit with something risky or not I’ve had a successful day.
Sometimes, it’s the biggest risks that give the greatest rewards.
Protect Your Sovereignty. Women WILL TRY To Manipulate You. #NOCONTACT #ICETHEMOUTAs a business and a filmmaker I believe in “no risk, no reward”. It takes many years of trial and error to build your risk tollarence. Ultimately nothing great was ever achieved without great risk(examples,to walk on the moon, the light bulb, iPhone…..) Our human evolution would not have happen without great risk for past seven million years.
Game theory (using and abusing of nash equilibrium) + pareto principle + bell curve + bayesian probability + kolmogorov smirnov test
Mix everything together, and you have your results. Pareto + bell curve give you an answer when you don’t have too much time to think, because they define the natural way that things usually happen, bayes makes you open your eyes to some false statistics and keep focus on numbers because they never lie.
Nash equilibrium is the optimal “move” in the “game” (game theory slang), so you can analyse it and understand, for example in a relationship.
If one person only f~~~ their partner, this person is loyal, which doesn’t worth s~~~. If that person f~~~ others and the partner, this person have more sex and enjoy more, but if the partner find out, the partner leave. Now apply the genders and the “reality dose”, if you leave her, SHE TAKE YOUR S~~~ WITH HER AND GET AN EARLY RETIREMENT BASED ON ALIMONY, so sometimes is even better for her to leave you, and if you leave her the same happens. What it make with this scenario ? It give her an really positive result for her to CHEAT. She will have more sex, more fun, you pay the bills. So the best move for women is to cheat, always.
Let’s use pareto (80/20 principle) and the bell curve (basically everything is median, the extremes are rare). The quality of the relationship you can meansure with the bell curve, take a look around your mangina friends and see, they are all miserable as f~~~, there are of course on that is better, other that is even more miserable, but the distribution is based on the bell curve, and if the median is miserable, expect you to be the same if you get in the same situation. Pareto principle is simple, c~~~s on their daily basis don’t act like desperate whores because they are attracted to the only top 20% guys, and will threat the other 80% as s~~~, but soon as they met one in the top 20%, they lose their s~~~ and start flirting in no time. So if you are married you have 80% of being in the non-top-list guys, also there is the marriage factor that says “you already mine, so I don’t need any further effort to keep you mine, it means I won’t even swallow”.
Now bayesian probability. Bayesian probability can be explained by the AWALT factor, yes, MAYBE there is an NAWALT somewhere, to make things easier to calculate, let’s put a number of 10% of NAWALTs (Hell I’m generous ! It won’t be even 0.00000001% if they exist !), and you have 2 variables to analysis, one is “boolean” (means IS or ISN’T a NAWALT, only two options), and the other is an equal distribution of a beauty score, from 1 to 10. Lets imagine that in 100 c~~~s, their beauty distribution is based on the bell curve (which is true in this scenario), so the average is located in the middle (50%), from that you take 10% in a graph that would look like a layer of fat if stacked above your line, but the real fact is that is far bellow the main line. So you will end up with 3 average c~~~s being NAWALT and median beauty, 2 a little above and 2 a little bellow, 1 a little bit more above and a little bit more bellow, and “half” split again between those areas. Now again lets apply some “reality” factor (we are already in the imagination land considering 10% of nawalt), let’s use the pareto principle to determine how much men will approach a women, so 80% of the women will be approached by man, and let make it the factor that will determine if she have potential to be a AWALT, so, it will shift our distribution of NAWALT to the very END of the spectrum, givin the middle of the bell being at the “middle of the bottom = 10%”, so you have your NAWALT distribution of fat-ugly-as-f~~~-c~~~s with the peak at a 1 score in beauty ! Hell even I giving them all the advantages in the numbers they come out PRETTY BAD ! This is why the search for a NAWALT doesn’t worth the time, if you find it, it will be a disgusting landwhale without TOOTHS and a it will have FAKE EYE ! HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAA
And now finally, the cherry of the cake, KS.. KS is the maximum distance between two curves, sounds complicated but think it about being a point where you have an optimal risk X reward. Lets imagine that when you date a c~~~, you f~~~ her 5 times a week and spend 100 dollars a week with her, when you are engaged, you have 6 times sex and spend 200, and when you are married you spend 1000 and have 2 times sex. The best choice here is date, you have more sex engaged BUT you spend more, so the distance between the “spend” and “sex” curve is minimized. Remember, this example doesn’t consider ALL THE S~~~ SHOW THAT THE WORLD IS, is only the numbers and it is just an example, in the real world, s~~~ is crazy and sometimes you get f~~~ed really hard.
So put everything together + some analytical thinking, and you have my MGTOW risk analysis Solid version.
Buying a Jeep: testdrive, read reviews, ask friends.
Skydiving: follow the rules, think on safety.
Traveling to the UK: learn about where you are going, buy a map.
Buying a dog: learn about dog breads.
Changing jobs: dont quit before you have something else lined up.
Accepting a promotion: be sure that you can do the job…There is always something you can do… Except with women, nothing you can do will give you lasting peace with them.
Nailed it brother !!!
Anonymous3How do you as an individual analyze risks in your life?
I am not good in probability calculation, so I make such decisions in the stupid simple way, I ask only a few questions before taking a risk:
1. Is the “expected value” of the outcome positive to me?, (or at least, less bad than other options, if there are multiple ways to do something.)
Example: I do not play lottery or gambling, because the expected value is (on average) negative.
2. Will I be dead or head-deep in s~~~, if the worst outcome happens?
Example: That’s why I do not marry or take huge bank loans or ignore red traffic lights in the morning traffic jam and so on…3. How many times can I try again, or is it worth the time? Isn’t there any other game where I can win more in less time / effort?
Example: Let’s say that the craziest laws regarding the topic of relationships are deleted, and half(+) of your s~~~ won’t be taken by an ex and so on… Would it then still be worth to sacrifice many many years of useless dating and trial and error to find a nawalt? I mean, one would get old before finding one even if trying a lot.
I spend significant time every day reading, researching, and training since I fall hard on my face the first time I do anything. This reduces risk and lets me do all the risky things I believe are reasonable. Racing, Skydiving, Mountain Climbing, all reasonable. Walking around South Side Chicago wearing a business suit, getting married, unreasonable. If it’s a major decision, I will deliberately think things through and then wait at least a week to ensure emotion is out of it, flash sales don’t work on me and I avoid buying junk this way. When I make major purchases it’s always been simply a business negotiation that didn’t give me joy or pain and usually results in the sellers all frowning as I walk away with at least a 20% discount if a deal was made.
There is no risk in marriage for a man , it’s a racing certainty he will either be unhappy or divorce raped , that’s it.
Some great analysis guys , top draw
Funny thing is, just about all other risk in life that does not deal with women is MANAGEABLE RISK.
Anything dealing with WOMEN is a kind of risk that involves the Lottery. And your odds are 5,000,000 to 1.
You are all alone. If you have been falsely accused of RAPE, DV, PLEASE let all men know about the people who did this. http://register-her.net/web/guest/home
Risk is only half the equation for me…its risk vs reward. If the reward is great enough, the risk will be worth it. The problem with modern women and relationships…the value of the risk side keeps going up while the value of the reward side keeps going down. They just aren’t worth it.
How do you as an individual analyze risks in your life?
Does the risk come with a reward? Is there a benefit to the cost?
Marriage fails on both counts. There is literally no reason for any man to get married. It’s not risky. It’s just stupid.
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