Oil price spike -> the next recession?

[ghostParticipant]

This one is for Doc, in case he’s reading.

I have been studying recessions of past and all but one recession had an oil price spike just prior.

The $2 trillion plus cuts in crude oil investments over the last 2-3 years will inevitably catch up. Shale is heavily funded by low interest wall street money. The companies are barely turning any profits, but focused entirely on increasing production. Shale requires constant drilling due to heavy decline rates and high water saturation. Conventional production, which has a much slower decline curve, has been declining rapidly.

I could be wrong but I wouldn’t rule out a price spike when sentiment starts to turn. Inventories in most countries except the US are declining.

[Faust For ScienceParticipant 22521]

Oil is not going to spike in price. Those behind the price of oil have tried every trick in the book to keep oil prices artificially inflated. Supply and demand is starting to finally have an effect on oil and oil prices are dropping.

[ghostParticipant]

Faust For Science wrote:

Supply and demand is starting to finally have an effect and oil prices are dropping.

Nothing ever stays in balance too long. I’m not saying they will but I won’t rule it out completely.

[Secret Agent MGTOWParticipant 22514]

I believe you are correct. We have had lots of full tankers sitting offshore for a long time waiting to be unloaded to be refined because demand hasn’t been as high as it was in the past.

Women want everything, but want responsibility and accountability for nothing.

[Faust For ScienceParticipant 22521]

ghost wrote:

Faust For Science wrote:

Supply and demand is starting to finally have an effect and oil prices are dropping.

Nothing ever stays in balance too long. I’m not saying they will but I won’t rule it out completely.

Actually, true balance can last a long time if so many people were not working against that balance.

For a long time we have not had proper markets, proper industry based jobs, and proper economics. Everything has been rigged to screw over the U.S. population for decades. But, this is artificial and this cannot last forever.

Those in control cannot print money out of the mess they have created.

Now, the U.S. dollar may collapse, which would raise prices across the board for those in the U.S.

Secret Agent MGTOW wrote:

I believe you are correct. We have had lots of full tankers sitting offshore for a long time waiting to be unloaded to be refined because demand hasn’t been as high as it was in the past.

Just as there are seas of vehicles in parking lots across the world, due the auto companies do not want to sent those vehicles into the market because this would drop prices.

This is not supply and demand. This is artificial inflation of the prices of products.

[ghostParticipant]

Secret Agent MGTOW wrote:

We have had lots of full tankers sitting offshore for a long time waiting to be unloaded to be refined because demand hasn’t been as high as it was in the past.

Price action usually follows sentiment. Once the sentiment shifts, the value of all crude in storage should increase. I think demand has actually been very good. I believe the issue is more of an oversupply that occurred over the last few years. It led to the huge storage glut you are seeing.

[ghostParticipant]

Faust For Science wrote:

For a long time we have not had proper markets, proper industry based jobs, and proper economics. Everything has been rigged to screw over the U.S. population for decades. But, this is artificial and this cannot last forever.

I agree and that’s one of the reasons I am worried. A lot of the shale production in the US has been financed by cheap money from wall street due to low interest rates. What happens when inflation comes back and the Fed has to raise rates to correct?

[Faust For ScienceParticipant 22521]

ghost wrote:

I agree and that’s one of the reasons I am worried.

Do not be worried about this. An economic adjustment back to sound fiscal principles is in the best interest of the American people.

Dragging out this corruptions allows the globalists to bleed the American people dry. Such as what happened to Greece. The only reason the situation is not that bad in the U.S. is the population is far large and for more well armed.

[Back in BlackParticipant 1732]

Oil is priced in US dollars and over the past few months the US dollar has dropped significantly. That could/should lead to higher oil prices. Or at least provide a floor on pricing.

"Women are directly adapted to act as the nurses and educators of our early childhood, for the simple reason that they themselves are childish, foolish, and short-sighted—in a word, are big children all their lives, something intermediate between the child and the man, who is a man in the strict sense of the word. Consider how a young girl will toy day after day with a child, dance with it and sing to it; and then consider what a man, with the very best intentions in the world, could do in her place.” Quote from Arthur Shopenhauer, 17th century philosopher

[BeerParticipant 11832]

I think prices will go up again at some point as oil/gas has always been a cyclical market, but I don’t think it will necessarily cause a recession, I think it really depends on the reasons why the prices go back up. If the s~~~ hits the fan in the middle east for example, and their production plummets, we very well may find ourselves in a situation where prices go up yet we ramp up our production and exports, so in the end maybe it cost you a few more bucks on your electric bill or when you fill up your car, but for the country as a whole it creates a lot of well paying jobs and could put us in a situation where we have a large trade surplus rather than deficit.

[ghostParticipant]

Beer wrote:

but for the country as a whole it creates a lot of well paying jobs and could put us in a situation where we have a large trade surplus rather than deficit.

Spot ON brother 🍺.

[Anonymous 0]

Because oil is abiogenic and literally everywhere you drill is oil (proven by Russian geologists by drilling wells in North Korea and in granite in Sweden*, both specifically in locations where, according to common expert-geologist wisdom, oil definitely could not be present), combined with a transition to non-hydrocarbon fuels, I expect oil prices to drop and to stay down forever. “Peak oil” is a myth – oil is continuously produced inside the Earth’s Mantle by combining H2O and CaCO3 under enormous pressure. This is why oil wells refill with very significant speed. This process has been replicated in Russian labs. The entire “fossil” theory of oil is absolutely insane, when examined ever so cursory.

BTW, also coal is not made of dead trees. Coal originates as a liquid and later solidifies. I am well aware that these claims are highly controversial, but I spent so many hours on reading up on the relevant scientific literature that I had to come with this POV 🙂

* The Swedes specifically challenged the Russians to prove their theory by saying: “Here can never have been an ocean – come and drill and put your money where your mouth is!”

[BeerParticipant 11832]

I don’t normally invest in commodities but I’m thinking about throwing some money into a triple leveraged oil ETF tomorrow morning…something tells me we’ll see a rise in prices in the short term thanks to Harvey. I doubt it will have much impact 6 months down the road from now but the market tends to over react to things. So tempting to make that quick hit lol…but I’ll probably decide not to and see what pipelines or big oil producers go on sale next week instead and grab some more shares to add to my dividend portfolio.

[ghostParticipant]

Beer wrote:

triple leveraged oil ETF tomorrow morning

Triple seems very aggressive. I would do just 1x or 2x at most.

[bigboy83Participant 11312]

All these energy companies are bankrupt from $47 barrel oil.

$83.00 to break even

$90 to 95 to make money.

Lot of companies had negative cash flows when oil was at $120.00

Shit Tested, Cunt Approved.

[Author]

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