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FunInTheSun 3 years, 2 months ago.
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I’m curious to see if others have thought about how Trump’s proposed policies on immigration, trade, and government regulations would change their personal economy.
Where I’m at in Texas, virtually all construction is done by Hispanic labor. I don’t want to make assumptions, but I’d be shocked if the workers were legal citizens working for minimum wage or above. Given that Trump plans on shutting down illegal immigration, I expect that the construction business will slow, and housing prices will rises. It’s going to effect the home services improvements too, like putting in new floors, pools, and the like. Since I already have my home and have no plans for upgrades, I’m thinking this aspect is good for me personally.
Then there is trade. No more cheap Chinese goods, so you can expect prices to rise here. Not just on the cheap stuff, but higher priced goods as well since they are likely made from imported parts. This is not so good. I wonder if it makes sense to consider making more purchases in the short term, expecting prices to go up in the long term.
As for regulations, that’s going to be good for American industries. It may help workers some, but I expect it won’t change their pocket books much.
Now, I am in favor of these changes, but I think they come with growing pains. You can’t make drastic changes in the economy like this without it hurting some. I’m hoping we are smart enough to make subtle changes to lesson the impact, and that we have the vision to understand the long term goal. It will take time to bring back manufacturing and adjust to all the changes.
Ok. Then do it.
Here is an video answer for you, hope it helps
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And by the way , i dont see nothing wrong to send back home ILLEGALS versus haveing LEGALS ? Do you?
There is a reason why they are ILLEGALS in a first place.
Yes, as a result of sending our oppressed labor underclass back home to Mexico, prices will absolutely rise on construction, produce, housekeeping, lawn care, restaurant food and any number of other things.
Likewise if we get a China tariff or if they quit manipulating their currency, the price of imported “goods” will rise as well.
What we hope will happen is that the factories will come back, Americans will take the jobs and things will right themselves.
I think immigration and trade changes will be incremental. Trump is a business man, and he knows the importance of “cheap” foreign labor. I’m thinking that he will have policy that will grant somewhat lenient work visa’s as long as the immigrant is registered, and paying taxes. So, yes construction costs will probably go up, but I don’t think it will be a prohibitive expense that will dramatically slow construction if we are also able to begin building a stronger economy. Of course, when it comes to illegals that are criminals, and not adding anything to the country, then the policy won’t be incremental, but a one way ticket back over the border.
Trade is an issue, and depends exactly to what degree and how deep he may restrict trade. Again, he’s a business man first, and he’s going to do what is best for business up to the point that it won’t detrimentally effect the economy/consumer. I don’t know what that fine line may be, and I think it will be a matter of trial and error. I’m far from an expert on economics. So, maybe someone who is can chime in and enlighten me.
In a World of Justin Beibers Be a Johnny Cash
And by the way , i dont see nothing wrong to send back home ILLEGALS versus leaving LEGALS ? Do you?
I’m not that interested in the morality aspect of it. You can look at it from several different angles, and everyone’s going to weight them differently.
From a cost standpoint, it makes the most sense to stop the flow of immigration first. From there, it gets more difficult, as morality will definitely define where it goes from there. I suppose I’d want to see some worker program that allows someone to steadily work up to minimum wage and cut benefits, while still allowing the US to deport for a multitude of reasons. I wouldn’t want to pay to deport everyone. It’s principled for sure, but will hurt everyone involved.
Yes, as a result of sending our oppressed labor underclass back home to Mexico, prices will absolutely rise on construction, produce, housekeeping, lawn care, restaurant food and any number of other things.
Oppressed? I’d rather not getting to that. We aren’t going to agree.
What we hope will happen is that the factories will come back, Americans will take the jobs and things will right themselves.
The factories will come back and jobs will be filled, but I am doubtful that Americans will work as effectively as they do in other countries or our current illegal immigrants. Right now, Americans can work retail for minimum wage, which is not that strenuous. They aren’t going to work in construction for the same wage AND put more effort into it.
One thing I’ve noticed about construction labor, and I see a lot of it where I live, is the people are generally happy. I think a lot of Americans have lost the ‘joy’ of manual labor, but I hope we can get it back again.
Note: I say that, knowing that I’ll never take a job like that, so take it with a grain of salt.
Ok. Then do it.
Trade is an issue, and depends exactly to what degree and how deep he may restrict trade. Again, he’s a business man first, and he’s going to do what is best for business up to the point that it won’t detrimentally effect the economy/consumer. I don’t know what that fine line may be, and I think it will be a matter of trial and error. I’m far from an expert on economics. So, maybe someone who is can chime in and enlighten me.
I like the idea of basing tariffs off an index of the importing Countries environmental policies and human rights record. That should make liberals happy as well as create a more even playing field. Perhaps adding in a cost of living index as well if needed. You want to make it so that a US company has no reason to manufacture outside the US, but not to the point where they no longer have to compete with imports at all.
Ok. Then do it.
I think its more complex than that if you send all the illegals away. I know around here a lot of the illegal workers end up working in restaurants. Let’s just say in theory one a mom and pop pizza place went from paying an illegal 10.00 bucks an hour under the table to paying a legit citizen 15.00 an hour. That would cost them an extra 5 bucks an hour to run the place. If that guy works 8 hours a day and they serve 200 meals during that 8 hours, it literally just cost an extra 20 cents per meal to employ a citizen over an illegal. I know its not easy to be a small business owner but at the same time I know plenty of places where the owners are driving a sweet ass Mercedes and living in a nice house and are obviously doing well…yet they still hire illegals just because they can get away with it.
Its the same for farming. Let’s just say you pick 300lbs of tomatoes an hour, and they pay an American 20 bucks an hour instead of an illegal 10 bucks an hour under the table. You’d be paying 3 cents a lb per tomato more to give a citizen a living wage job who would be sharing the tax burden with you rather than leeching the system.
Construction? If it takes two guys 60 hours worth of labor to put a roof on for you and the contractor charges you 20,000 for the job, and now you pay 10 bucks an hour more for 60 hours for Americans to do it…its going to cost 20,600…big deal. I’d gladly pay the extra 3% to get some leech out of here that is probably working under the table, and when its tax return time filing a return and claiming all kinds of credits and getting paid to be here illegally. Yeah they estimate half of illegals file tax returns but the majority of them get back more than they pay in. Why wouldn’t they file if that is the case, and why the hell do we let that happen?
I just don’t see it slowing the economy at all when it would get millions off of welfare and unemployment, help millions of underemployed, and probably drive the low end of the wage spectrum up for some industries. Its just not cost effective to pay some American 15 bucks an hour in welfare benefits to sit on his ass and pay an illegal 10 bucks an hour under the table to work. Its like paying someone 25 an hour to do it…why not just pay an American 15 or 20 and everyone wins in the long run…well except the illegals who shouldn’t be here in the first place.
Another thing I’m a huge fan of Trump wants to do is lower the corporate tax rate and tax rates for companies to bring off shore money back home. I think this will give the economy a little shot of adrenaline, and help industries across the board. Its just moronic expecting businesses to stay here and pay 35%(plus some states add even more on) when they could pay 15 or 20% elsewhere. I’d rather get a lower % of a lot of money than a high % of nothing, which is essentially what we’re doing now by having such a high corporate tax rate making it so rewarding for companies to leave. Yeah I guess some people will bitch about those evil corporations making profits…but in reality most of us have some exposure to the stock market. If you have any sort of IRA, 401k, or pension…you have exposure to the markets. If companies are doing well and raising dividends we all win. The only ones who lose are the debt slaves that never invest anything, but people who live like that are going to lose regardless of if our economy is humming along nicely or stagnant.
What worries me though is the bull market that seems to be going on forever thanks to near 0% rates for a decade and our money supply quadrupling since Obama took office. I think sooner we will find out what the long term side effects of that will be…I just hope the timing of the outfall from those things doesn’t hand the next election to democrats before Trump’s policies even have time to work.
I like the idea of basing tariffs off an index of the importing Countries environmental policies and human rights record. That should make liberals happy as well as create a more even playing field. Perhaps adding in a cost of living index as well if needed. You want to make it so that a US company has no reason to manufacture outside the US, but not to the point where they no longer have to compete with imports at all.
Exactly…we can’t compete with these other countries when before we even factor in the cost of labor we have more regulations and higher taxes. I don’t know what the perfect solution is, but what we have been doing for decades now is obviously not working. I realize isolationism hasn’t worked in the past and I’m not expecting it to work in the future, but at the same time there is a huge middle ground between isolationism and free trade, and I think somewhere in that middle ground is a place much better than where we are now. Hopefully the next administration can move us in that direction.
Given that Trump plans on shutting down illegal immigration, I expect that the construction business will slow, and housing prices will rises.
No. Wages will get paid a few bucks more. Prices for homes will adjusted by a couple of percentage points and live with go on. With the planned deregulation and tax cuts in the economy such moves will help a lot in getting the economy going.
The point of forcing illegal immigrants from the work force is to stop the lowering of wages. Corporations are like bitches, they want our money, but they do not want to paid us a fair market wage, so they flood the market with foreigners to depress wages, cut us out of jobs, and destroy our lives.
I think its more complex than that if you send all the illegals away. I know around here a lot of the illegal workers end up working in restaurants. Let’s just say in theory one a mom and pop pizza place went from paying an illegal 10.00 bucks an hour under the table to paying a legit citizen 15.00 an hour. That would cost them an extra 5 bucks an hour to run the place. If that guy works 8 hours a day and they serve 200 meals during that 8 hours, it literally just cost an extra 20 cents per meal to employ a citizen over an illegal. I know its not easy to be a small business owner but at the same time I know plenty of places where the owners are driving a sweet ass Mercedes and living in a nice house and are obviously doing well…yet they still hire illegals just because they can get away with it.
I’m no expert on restaurants, but I believe the wait staff works at below minimum wage because of tips. I doubt even the legal workers are making $10/hr (without tips). I get that you’re throwing out numbers, and the extra cost per meal probably is something that the customer and/or business owner can absorb. However, it is a change that will take adjusting too. Not only will you have to mentally accept that the new system works in your favor, but you will have to find and train new workers.
Construction? If it takes two guys 60 hours worth of labor to put a roof on for you and the contractor charges you 20,000 for the job, and now you pay 10 bucks an hour more for 60 hours for Americans to do it…its going to cost 20,600…big deal
From what I’ve seen, it takes about 4 guys 2 days, working 10 hour days, to complete. So that’s 80 hours. If you add $10 an hour, that’s $800 more to the job. But what about payroll taxes and medical expenses that you now have to cover? Wouldn’t your insurance have to come now as well, since you now have workers comp to consider? And again, where are you going to find trained legal workers? Will they work efficiently as your illegals did? (No) Will they unionize to get higher wages? (Yes) How much of that can you absorb, and how much has to be passed to the customer?
I’d gladly pay the extra 3% to get some leech out of here that is probably working under the table, and when its tax return time filing a return and claiming all kinds of credits and getting paid to be here illegally
Maybe, but will we see that returned to us through lower taxes, cheaper medical bills, or even a lower national debt? History shows that we won’t. I’m not convinced that Trump will be different, or that he can get congress to cut spending. And will the voters have the discipline to get rid of politicians who won’t cut spending?
Ok. Then do it.
Trump says he will renegotiate trade deals – not scrap them outright – he’s still a business man at heart.
There will still be plenty of Legal aliens left among other citizens to do the lower skilled work and hey maybe bring back the work ethic of past generations instead of the current slacker one.
Lifes a bitch,but you don't have to marry one!
I don’t envy Trump’s task over there at all, especially as it seems the world economy is on the brink of going to s~~~ sooner or later.
He’ll also have a tremendous up hill battle with congress on much of what he wants to do.
We have a similar problem over here in the UK since Brexit, the politicians are trying put sticks in the wheel spokes. It’s pathetic that they can’t accpept what the people have voted for.
In the Uk there is no denying that some of our foreign labour is worth it’s weight in gold but there are spongers both foreign and home grown.
With the lack of a work ethic and sense of entitlment that has grown over the past few decades, it’s going to take another few decades before things start to any where near right themsleves.
I’m all for those in need of genuine help but only in extreme cases. People just don’t want to work these days and that is why china is the new super power.
I remember seeing a Jim Rogers video in which he said, in the western world when someone goes for a job, one of the first things they ask is how much time off they get. In places like china they ask how many hours can they work!
As a society we’ve gone soft and over indulged on our success, so the baton will be handed over to China. Then in probably my never to exist Grand Kid’s generation, somone else will have their turn at the apex.
It’s just life i guess.
He’ll also have a tremendous up hill battle with congress on much of what he wants to do.
Before the election, I thought the same. But he didn’t just win the election, he did so in a way that convinced Republicans that they were better off with him then against him. The repubs in Congress that lost or had trouble maintaining their seat were against Trump. Trump also got support from demographics the republicans aren’t used to. Democrats are reeling, and I suspect they will end up siding with him quite frequently because they want their base voters back. They will disagree where ever they can, but they won’t disagree for the sake of disagreeing.
Ok. Then do it.
But what about payroll taxes and medical expenses that you now have to cover? Wouldn’t your insurance have to come now as well, since you now have workers comp to consider?
You are paying all that now anyhow…its just being paid through various welfare programs and medicaid. Plus if an illegal falls off a roof or something and gets hurt and goes to the hospital, they have to treat him. He won’t pay a dime of it…guess who picks up the tab.
And again, where are you going to find trained legal workers?
Trained for what? For the supposed unskilled jobs illegals do? How long does it take to learn how to roof, sheet rock, mow lawns, or a whole crap load of other things they do? Even if you have a guy working with you that doesn’t know how to do it a lot of jobs like that can be taught in the amount of time it takes to do one job, and while training the guy you just have him do all the brainless grunt work while he learns. Its not like we are kicking out a bunch of engineers and doctors that will take a decade to replace.
You’d probably actually have people flocking to these jobs that don’t require a degree that pay decent if they paid decent still like they used to, instead of paying 2 dollars an hour more than what you can make at Walmart for doing next to nothing and sitting in a temperature controlled environment.
Will they work efficiently as your illegals did? (No)
A lot of the guys that do that kind of work are small businesses that work by the job. You want to see a guy bust ass…tell him he’s getting paid 1000 bucks for a job whether he does it in one day or three…he’s either going to hustle or he’s not going to last in that line of work very long. Plus its pretty easy to get rid of s~~~ bags that don’t want to work and to pay your good workers decently when the owner is one of the guys out in the field working side by side with his guys and sees who does what. They know the hustlers make them money so its worth it to keep them around, unlike corporate bean counters who think the best candidate is anyone with a pulse willing to work for the lowest offer.
Will they unionize to get higher wages? (Yes)
They might but it only works for the big outfits…and even then they aren’t all union, and if the union guys aren’t competitive they don’t win contracts.
How much of that can you absorb, and how much has to be passed to the customer?
That’s the thing…its ALL being passed on to the “customer”(taxpayers) right now.
And will the voters have the discipline to get rid of politicians who won’t cut spending?
And this is the ultimate problem. We have too many people that just vote for more spending endlessly because they don’t pay taxes anyhow so its all free to them, and disregarding those people, too many of whats left just don’t understand spending an extra dime today to save a dollar tomorrow is in your best interest…all they see is that dime coming out of their pocket right now.
He can start by adding Ron Paul and Peter Schiff to his panel.
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You are paying all that now anyhow…its just being paid through various welfare programs and medicaid. Plus if an illegal falls off a roof or something and gets hurt and goes to the hospital, they have to treat him. He won’t pay a dime of it…guess who picks up the tab.
I’m not a business owner, I’m not paying for that. I understand that I’m paying a portion of that now, but not the whole like a business owner would. Assuming this change would mean lower costs to me (and not justification for more spending), that still means it cost more for services like roofing. As a customer, there’s a good chance I won’t want to spend the extra and forgo altogether.
Roofing isn’t the best example, because it’s usually not elective. Something like putting in a pool is. If I’m in the market for a pool, I go in with a budget in mind, say $40k. That $40k will get me more pool today, then it will 2 years from now. I probably won’t be willing to increase my budget because other areas are costing me less…I haven’t adjusted yet. That means I either get less pool, or I decide it’s not worth it and get nothing. Both options hurt the pool contractor…and me since I get a crappy pool or nothing at all.
BTW, I’ve heard pool contractors typically get 20% on a each pool. So for a $40k pool, they get $8k. They could maybe take a little less, but not much. It’s not worth their effort for much less. They could make it up in volume maybe, but the market is going to be smaller, and volume business favors the big players, not the single business owners.
I’ll give on your other points. I still think you’ll have issues replacing the labor force, but it is do-able.
I do see potential for an economic slow down, but probably the best thing the economy has going for it are selfish, impatient, and ignorant consumers. We keep spending money even when we shouldn’t. Take the pool example above, the average consumer would probably go ahead and get the pool and go over budget to do it, just because they want it and want it now!
Ok. Then do it.
Trump has already put THOUSANDS of people to work at $15-22 and hour with benefits! The man is THAT f~~~ing good.
Philosophy, the female repellent
Given that Trump plans on shutting down illegal immigration, I expect that the construction business will slow, and housing prices will rises.
So the construction companies will have to hire Americans and resident aliens and pay more taxes to their state governments? Boo hoo. I’ll gladly pay a few extra thousand dollars for my house if that’s the case. I might end up breaking even if my income taxes are lowered due to the decrease in welfare recipients & DREAM ACT college grants.
"I saw that there comes a point, in the defeat of any man of virtue, when his own consent is needed for evil to win-and that no manner of injury done to him by others can succeed if he chooses to withhold his consent. I saw that I could put an end to your outrages by pronouncing a single word in my mind. I pronounced it. The word was ‘No.’" (Atlas Shrugged)
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