Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Employment Part 1

[Y_Participant 4591]

Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Employment Part 1 [1]

Artificial intelligence (AI) is remarkably complex and advancing quickly. It’s impossible for anyone to give a precise vision of how the next several years will unfold.

But it is possible to make specific predictions about AI trends, then share key implications for business, government, and society. Many of these nasty trends are already underway.

Will AI likely devastate the job market in the long run? Of course – but they won’t tell you.

It is likely that with rising costs from the world economies adjusting to higher interest rates, demographics, the rise of cheap autonomous labour and restricted capital – the human components (read as you) will be are being – replaced or made redundant.

Below are eight predictions — based on insights from AI visionaries, as well as what industry leaders see as they advise clients around the world who are putting AI to work in their own organizations.

1. AI will impact employers before it impacts employment

Organizations face a challenge: AI works best when it brings together data and teams from different disciplines. It also requires structures and skills for human-machine collaboration.

But most organizations keep data in cartels and teams in silos. Few have started work on giving employees the basic AI skills that they’ll need. The average enterprise isn’t ready for what AI is about to demand of it.

Consider how AI is enhancing the product design process: A human engineer defines a part’s materials, desired features, and various constraints, and inputs it into an AI system, which generates a number of simulations. Engineers then either choose one of the options, or refine their inputs and ask the AI to try again.

This paradigm is one reason why AI will strengthen the economy. At the same time, however, there’s no denying that in some industries, economies, and roles—especially those that involve repetitive tasks—jobs will change or be eliminated.

This is what employees thought (or were conned into thinking)

2. AI will come down to earth—and get to work

It may not attract media headlines, but AI is right now automating increasingly complex processes, identifying trends to create business value, and providing forward-looking intelligence. This AI is often “entering through the backdoor” as everyday applications incorporate it.

There are plenty of publications promising an AI-powered future that will look like magic: fleets of autonomous cars that never crash or encounter traffic jams, robot doctors that diagnose illness in milliseconds, and smart infrastructure that optimizes flows of people and goods and maintains itself before repairs are ever needed.

Executives think that AI will be crucial for their success: 72% believe it will be the business advantage of the future by adding value from tedious tasks (meaning you used to work here but not anymore)

Consider how most companies’ finance functions spend a large portion of their time: wading through data coming from ERP, payment processing, business intelligence, and other systems. Many staff members also spend hours each day poring through legal contracts and emails, or performing mundane transactional tasks.

The result is that value-adding analysis is what many finance professionals only do when they have time left over from their other, routine tasks.

Now imagine an AI system scanning all the function’s data, identifying trends and anomalies, performing many transactions automatically, and flagging relevant issues for further attention. Imagine AI also identifying and explaining likely risks and offering data-driven forecasts to support managers’ analysis and decisions.

That’s a GOOD thing right? Wrong. In a recent expose based on US courts it has been shown that AI have been programmed to be ethnically biased in assisting judges and another has skewed the requirements of police patrolling areas.[6]

It seems the push is on for AI – regardless if the system works or not.

3. AI will answer the big question about data

Many investments in data technology and integration have failed to answer the big question: Where’s the ROI (Return on Investment) for AI?

But AI is now delivering business cases for data initiatives, and new tools are making these initiatives more affordable than before by solving one specific problem at a time, and hence further data-driven AI solutions become easier.

Whats this means is human replacement starts in one area – example the receptionist in a hotel- where bookings can be done over the internet and registration by QR code from your mobile phone. One this is tweaked the next stage – example the bellboy – can be replaced. Until the manager is sent packing. The one employee who manages all this will be the IT programmer and possibly a part-time robot mechanic.

This is the list for those areas that will very soon feel the ‘benefits’ of AI and automation. The higher scores are already being automated, with a lag for those that deal more with human responses like hotel and restaurant staff.

Now, some are rethinking their data strategy as the landscape matures and AI itself becomes more real and practical.

They’re starting to ask the right questions, like:
How can we make our processes more efficient? and What do we need to do to automate data extraction? How many people can we fire?

4. Functional specialists, not techies, will decide the AI talent race

There’s a bidding war right now for computer scientists, but top tech talent is not enough for AI success. Organizations need domain experts who can work with AI and AI specialists. They won’t have to be programmers. They will have to understand the basics of data science and data visualization and something of how AI “thinks.”

As AI leaves the computer lab and enters everyday work processes, these domain experts will be even more important than computer scientists. Many functional specialists will need to upskill appropriately.

This is a temporary condition just like in the early days of computer programming. The younger programmers will fill this void easily. But note one thing – they usually will not have real life experience or understanding the systems to program AI correctly for the jobs they must do. Which means a lot of the AI will not be working properly in the initial phases of the transitioning to automation.

Consider a team of computer scientists creating an AI application to support asset management decisions. The AI specialists probably aren’t experts on the markets. They’ll need economists, analysts, and traders to help and then get rid of them.

And since the world is in constant flux, once the AI is up and running, it will need continual customizing and tweaking. For that too, employees —not programmers — will have to lead the way in financial services, healthcare, retail, manufacturing, and every sector that AI touches.

You can replace a dozen people with one after that!!.

5. Cyberattacks will be more powerful because of AI—but so will cyberdefense

Intelligent malware and ransomware that learn as they spread, machine intelligence coordinating global cyberattacks, advanced data analytics to customize attacks—unfortunately, it’s all on the way.

Organizations can’t bring a knife to a gun fight. They’ll have to fight AI with AI. Since even AI-wary organizations will have no choice but to deploy AI cyberdefense, cybersecurity will be many enterprises’ first foray with AI.

The winner of the US Defense Department’s DARPA Cyber Grand Challenge, a cybersecurity competition, used AI deep learning—and the Pentagon has purchased the technology.

Doesn’t that make you feel all warn and fuzzy inside?

6. Opening AI’s black box will become a priority

If AI should always be controllable, it’s not always understandable. Many AI algorithms are beyond human comprehension. And some AI vendors will not reveal how their programs work to protect intellectual property. In both cases, when AI produces a decision, its end users won’t know how it arrived there. Its functioning is a “black box.” We can’t see inside it.

Pressure will grow to open up “black boxes” and make AI explainable. But that involves trade-offs in cost and performance. Enterprises need frameworks to assess business, performance, regulatory, and reputational concerns as they decide the right level of AI explainability.

What this means is no one really knows HOW THE F~~~ these things actually work.

But they are perfectly safe for driverless cars [2] and lawyers [4]. And looking after your baby. What happens when AI-powered software turns down a mortgage application for reasons that the bank can’t explain? What if AI flags a certain category of individual at airport security with no apparent justification? How about when an AI trader, for mysterious reasons, makes a leveraged bet on the stock market?

Also AI are being used to predict future crimes by people [5]

Is it just me or is there a problem here?

7. Nations are sparring over AI

AI is a gigantic opportunity, and many governments are working to make sure that their countries get a big piece of the pie. Canada, Japan, the UK, Germany, and the UAE all have national AI plans. Tax reform and deregulation in the US may give AI a boost in the US.

China has shown it is ahead of the pack in the major areas of AI implementation. The reason is the vast availability of data. China stands apart in how it’s prioritizing AI for its economic future.

Unlike the US, the Chinese government is putting this plan into practice. For example, it recently commissioned Baidu to create a national “deep learning laboratory” together with leading universities—and it’s investing an undisclosed sum in the effort. Policeless police stations with Robocops are here already [3]

The country is already strong in AI. Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent are among the global AI leaders. Chinese programmers recently won the ImageNet AI competition. And its leading ecommerce companies are using highly sophisticated AI in their warehouses and across the business.

Other countries also have innovative engineers, universities, and companies. But China stands apart in the extent to which its government is prioritizing AI. Our research indicates that China will reap the most benefit from AI over the next decade: some $7 trillion in GDP gains by 2030, thanks to an uptick in productivity and consumption.

Its efforts are already bearing fruit and may lead to a “Sputnik moment:” the US is already in fear the loss of its technological superiority. (“Pssst – we need to stop this – how about a trade war on intellectual property?” See where this is going?)

8. Pressure for responsible AI won’t be on tech companies alone

Invasion of privacy, algorithmic bias, environmental damage, threats to brands and the bottom line—the fears around AI are numerous.

The World Economic Forum’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the IEEE, AI Now, The Partnership on AI, Future of Life, AI for Good, and DeepMind, among other groups, have all released sets of principles that look at the big picture: how to maximize AI’s benefits for humanity and limit its risks.

Unfortunately, a global consensus is not emerging around principles for responsible AI as each state and private corporation wants killer robots like yesterday.

With the CIA / NSA / (insert acronym here) / DUI / KFC – all vying for their own killer AI’s – the world is going to be a very interesting place.

So there you have it – a quick and candid view of a bleak dismal and Orwellian future.

I don’t know about you but I’m waiting for my sexbot. Drool.

Citations
[1] https://www.pwc.com/us/en/advisory-services/publications/artificial-intelligence-predictions.html
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/19/uber-self-driving-car-kills-woman-arizona-tempe
[3] https://thenextweb.com/artificial-intelligence/2017/11/09/china-is-building-a-police-station-powered-by-ai-not-humans/
[4] https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/12/15960080/chatbot-ai-legal-donotpay-us-uk
[5] https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/durham-police-ai-predict-crimes-artificial-intelligence-future-suspects-racial-bias-minority-report-a7732641.html
[6] https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23631464-300-biased-policing-is-made-worse-by-errors-in-precrime-algorithms/

[Faust For ScienceParticipant 22521]

Just think. The same older generations that made this automation possible, impoverishing younger generations, still expect the young generations to pay for their (older generations) retirement.

BWAHAHAHAHA!!

[Y_Participant 4591]

Faust For Science wrote:

Just think. The same older generations that made this automation possible, impoverishing younger generations, still expect the young generations to pay for their (older generations) retirement.

BWAHAHAHAHA!!

Wait till the older generation find that there is nothing left in the retirement hedge funds and 401K is a Ponzi sham. Karma is a bitch.

[Gravel PitParticipant]

I applaud the effort here in your presentation, even if you brought it in from somewhere else. I know you spent some time doing it.

In short: Don’t worry about AI or UBI or any of these other bulls~~~ topics. I call them Elon Musk topics. Mars Missions, Tesla, freaking solar panels and anthropogenic warming….it’s all bulls~~~. We’re never going to Mars or sending people to Alpha Centauri. Tesla will be bankrupt in 5 years and global warming is de-bunked constantly. We’re actually cooling right now.

We are centuries away, let me repeat CENTURIES, from having an AI robotic workforce. AI isn’t replacing jobs, I’m sorry. Let’s be serious about what we’re talking about so we don’t confuse terms. On one hand, you have “AI,” as in software that can analyze and scan millions of medical records and make a list of people who are about to get sick. That’s great but not exactly a job killer. You’re still gonna need a flesh and blood doctor and a dumb girl to schedule appointments at the office.

There are many applications like this for so-called AI, but they aren’t really Artificially Intelligent at all. Like the self-check out at your grocery store. They might have gotten rid of two cashiers but they still have to pay a guy to stand there when it has errors. I’d also bet, they’re still trying to break even on the machines too, but will eventually.

“AI” a deliberate misuse of the term by people with political motives.

The UBI cultists, especially p~~~ me off. (Universal Basic Income) The thought that robots will steal all our jobs and since we can’t make any money, the government will have to give everyone a basic allowance (welfare check).

Here is the biggest issue with an “AI” workforce.
99.99% of jobs require a human, with opposable thumbs and a standard brain (100 trillion synapses). We’re just stupid animals I know, but the brain is quite unique as a bio-machine. We eat some bread, the body makes sugar and before you know it we’re performing complicated tasks fluidly.

You are not going to be able to replicate that with fiber optic and metal, I’m sorry. This isn’t some Spielberg movie like all the Elon Musk fan-boys want it to be. There are no robots who can perform the jobs of today whether its a truck driver, oil changer, store clerk or math teacher. Autonomous cars are bulls~~~, period. They don’t work, and they will eventually be outlawed. This is what happens when you have psychotic hope for the future memes all over society. Delusions about life in the 22nd century somehow being available for the ME-NOW generation of hipster yuppies who buy every new iPhone as if it isn’t the same re-packaged bulls~~~ from 2010.

Show me a machine that can change the oil on a motorcycle. Show me a machine that can walk through a door, open a cash register and write a deposit slip, then drive a car to the bank and make that deposit. Where are the robots and AI? LOL its all bulls~~~ from Hollywood perpetuated by Elon-Muskites.

Robots are not about to replace s~~~. They can’t build houses or flip burgers. They can’t do plumbing repairs or fly airplanes….

Sorry if I came off too hard on this.

[VladParticipant 210]

Ouch, Yumbo, you hit such a nail on my head with “Provability: mathematical certainty behind decisions”. That’s the biggest pain of my curent work. Cause NO ONE will take AI for controlling anything important unless you can mathematically prove it will ALWAYS make a correct decision.

In practice, serious working with AI looks like you are hiring in mass some dumb illiterate immigrants from 3rd world to do the job after quick learning course: you’re gonna watch them like a hawk to prevent them from doing anything stupid and all time hover your hand over “STOP!!!” button.

All in all, usual direction of progress: more productivity per operator, higher qualifications requirements for operators, less operators required. Nothing new.

Marriage is the tomb of love (c)Giacomo Casanova

[Gravel PitParticipant]

Vlad wrote:

higher qualifications requirements for operators,

A warehouse full of drone bots who sort boxes and put them on trucks. We need highly trained robot repairmen to fix the robots when they break.

There just aren’t that many smart people to fill these sorts of jobs and I still cost less to hire than a robot.

When people talk about AI, I think they’re talking about two separate things; on one side, they’re talking about Software on computers. The other side is iRobot with Will Smith…

Sorry to keep posting. Peace yall

[Anonymous 0]

Excellent post, GravelPit!

My favorite part:

Gravel Pit wrote:

Here is the biggest issue with an “AI” workforce.
99.99% of jobs require a human, with opposable thumbs and a standard brain (100 trillion synapses). We’re just stupid animals I know, but the brain is quite unique as a bio-machine. We eat some bread, the body makes sugar and before you know it we’re performing complicated tasks fluidly.

You are not going to be able to replicate that with fiber optic and metal, I’m sorry. This isn’t some Spielberg movie like all the Elon Musk fan-boys want it to be. There are no robots who can perform the jobs of today whether its a truck driver, oil changer, store clerk or math teacher. Autonomous cars are bulls~~~, period. They don’t work, and they will eventually be outlawed. This is what happens when you have psychotic hope for the future memes all over society.

Some people just don’t get it – intelligence requires human brain to exist in the first place.
Human brain cannot be replicated, transferred, “cloned” or other sci-fi bulls~~~ like that. It never had been able to be, it is not, it never will be, ever.
And if you see or hear some “AI” news – please, revoke this message:

It’s all bulls~~~.

What is described by “AI”, in fact, is just little bit more robust automation and computation with the same basic principle: garbage in – garbage out.
It cannot “think” nor have “intellect” of any kind. It’s just a program, f~~~ing calculator – there is no principal difference between any, I repeat ANY “AI” computational machine with ANY degree of automation and f~~~ing calculator.
Would you give your live at “hands” of calculator? I won’t.

In fact, that entire bulls~~~ “AI” agenda, IMO, is another tool of biological artificial selection of human beings towards other human beings, hidden genocide provided by collectivists and corporativists all around the globe. Their wet dreams, if you’d prefer it that way. This, of course will never ever be realized.
They’re trying to squeeze some use out of it, but it cannot be done. The more money going into it – the better. It would be more painful for them and better for MGTOW to get rid of it.
Sorry for harsh depiction of it, enjoy the show, guys = )

[Y_Participant 4591]

Vlad wrote:

Ouch, Yumbo, you hit such a nail on my head with “Provability: mathematical certainty behind decisions”. That’s the biggest pain of my curent work. Cause NO ONE will take AI for controlling anything important unless you can mathematically prove it will ALWAYS make a correct decision.

I sympathise. Working in similar circumstances to you I know how much pain real programmers and mathematicians like you go through.

On the other hand I have a real concern that significant work done so far does not have the burden of proof we think is necessary. Where does that leave us? I fear the worst.

[Y_Participant 4591]

@ Gravelpit
Thanks for the really interesting discussion. I have a different viewpoint related to ‘AI’ adoption and I believe humans have a problem in how ‘AI’ (for want of a better term) is replacing humans.

I agree that actual ‘AI’ as what we see in sci-fi is probably a long way away. However the current status of ‘AI’ – which I should have made clear (thank you for pointing that out!) – is currently a software process that is able to replace data intensive and routine tasks. It does not replace ‘critical’ thinking – yet.

Again I have been working in technical areas for most of my life and have seen jobs replaced by software – jobs which people have said were not easy to replace using dumb systems – yet it is being done.

My contention is twofold –
1. humans believe ‘critical thinking’ is something needed for the majority of tasks. This is being proven untrue or misguided. Most jobs are not creative and require minimal ‘human’ input.
2. ‘AI’ does not need to be true AI. The replacement of people with such ‘AI’ in data-intensive or routine areas is already underway and this is only going to get worse with time.

In Part 2 I will detail the various jobs that are being replaced by ‘AI’ at the current time and what the near future predicts.

My purpose was to link the emergence of AI and automation with employment trends. I will leave the discussion on what AI is or is not to others.

Thanks for the very valid points which I will take time to include in my future posts on this topic.

[Gravel PitParticipant]

Yumbo, yeah I hear you man. People who work in data analysis. which is a vast field I’m sure. are screwed to some degree.

It seems like everyday, we see more and more things that are actually a nuisance rather than a benefit, in the digital age.

Tech rises, kills brick and mortar commerce, kills social relations, kills jobs etc….

And when they do finally make robots with opposable thumbs, you know the tech will be wasted on sex dolls that give handies instead of Mexican robots that build houses. 🙂

[743 roadmasterParticipant]

Automation is getting a big boost every time a state increases the minimum wage. The minimum wage class can no see beyond the day to day expense and is willing to sacrifice some of its own to reach the means.
The political class is twice as stupid because it is twice the hit. First lost jobs are lost revenue to all levels local to federal. One these people have lost the job they go to the state for handouts.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/new-study-finds-minimum-wage-hikes-lead-to-job-automation/article/2631432

minimum wage hikes lead to job automation

http://www.straitstimes.com/lifestyle/food/california-company-builds-pizza-making-robots-that-can-churn-out-a-hot-pie-every-nine

Company builds pizza-making robots that can churn out a hot pie every nine seconds

http://www.theledger.com/news/20180122/local-company-advancing-rapidly-on-robotic-strawberry-harvester

Local company advancing rapidly on robotic strawberry harvester

mgtow is its own worst enemy- https://www.campusreform.org/

[Y_Participant 4591]

Gravel Pit wrote:

Yumbo, yeah I hear you man. People who work in data analysis. which is a vast field I’m sure. are screwed to some degree.

Thank you. Hope to hear from you again for another interesting discussion.

743 roadmaster wrote:

Local company advancing rapidly on robotic strawberry harvester

Thank you for the links. If you do not mind I may use these in my next post on actual cases of automation.

[743 roadmasterParticipant]

Go ahead. I figure not as many will see these posts further down in the thread,…but they are at least to me valued points that need to be stressed or at least pointed out.

mgtow is its own worst enemy- https://www.campusreform.org/

[Y_Participant 4591]

743 roadmaster wrote:

Go ahead. I figure not as many will see these posts further down in the thread,…but they are at least to me valued points that need to be stressed or at least pointed out.

I hope to do it justice. Thank you.

[IGMOW (I Go My Own Way)Participant 2572]

Or not… 😛

"I am my own thang. Any questions?" - Davis S Pumpkins.

[Y_Participant 4591]

IGMOW (I Go My Own Way) wrote:

Or not…

Haha good vid – he may be out of a job quicker than us.

[GrumpyParticipant]

On the plus side.
Automation will put HR in the trash bin where it belongs.
HumInt will still have a place because computers will always rely on the data that is input.
Machines are highly predictable, humans on the other other hand. Not so much.

There was a time in my life when I gave a fuck. Now you have to pay ME for it

[Y_Participant 4591]

Grumpy wrote:

Automation will put HR in the trash bin where it belongs.
HumInt will still have a place because computers will always rely on the data that is input.

Hi Grumpy – you know the other jobs that are being replaced?
Lawyers, accountants and even police.

Hallelujah! There is a God after all.

[rironParticipant 45]

Robotics engineer here. Many of the things here are correct, but also somewhat misleading.

Firstly about myself:

My job is to build robots to automate tasks. Some people actually attempted to sabotage two of our prototype robots because they were (rightfully) worried about their jobs. Our robots promise a cost reduction of several factors, which has obvious effects on employment.
However, I happen to be very young, so I have a small sample size.

Some things that are correct

Robots cannot operate alone, they must be operated by people skilled in their domain. Similarly, they cannot be designed by pure engineers and software developers. Their design requires people skilled in the relevant domain.

In operation, the software does not do the entire job, rather, it usually automates the most menial parts of the job. Clerical work is reduced to a mere fraction of the original work, resulting in a single secretary being able to perform the work of several secretary, or a proper expert no longer needing a secretary. General research is reduced greatly, usually by bringing up the most relevant information, reducing the need for experts to do in-depth research. For example, Watson shown in the video posted by IGMOW is used for doing medical lookup. It is given a series of “symptoms” and it brings up the most likely causes. It still requires a doctor to make the final call, but removes the need for time-consuming research. Similar thing in the legal field, the machine brings up relevant case law and statutes, but the lawyer makes the final call, it simply reduces the amount of research the lawyer needs to do.

On AI: AI cannot do “critical thinking” in any kind of real-world scenario, and will not be able to in the foreseeable future. Pattern matching however…

Why they are misleading, and why AI will still cause unemployment:

Engineers tend to be very flexible and are quick learners. While we might bring on several “domain experts” most of our “specialists” are re-purposed engineers. For example in a software team of about 20 people writing an accounting program, there needs to be only one real accounting expert, all the other accounting “experts” are simply software engineers that are learning accounting on the fly.

When it comes to operation, this requires a domain expert, usually a person previously employed in their field. However, improved technology will cause unemployment in the field in which it is introduced. (Think the introduction of farm machinery to farmers)

Unless you are in a managerial position, you should probably not rely on being the one “domain expert” of the software engineering team, or on being the one remaining employee who’s job it is to operate the new machines.

Personally, my opinions on ways to take advantage of improvements in technology:

The most obvious solution is being an engineer. However, if you do not want to retrain as an engineer, somebody still needs to build the machines. These people are the machinists, wiring technicians, welders, etc. While they are less skilled, the demand for these types of occupations will rise. You may think that these jobs should be automated. However, they are only automated for large production volumes. For small production volumes, these jobs are very much needed, and each new technology must work its way up from small production volumes. The larger and more complex the machine, the more difficult it is to automate its production, the only exception being cars due to the sheer volume in which they are manufactured. These skills, while requiring basic qualifications, are best learned on the job, are essentially an extension of the hand-on skills that most men are expected to have.

Write "What is MGTOW?" on paper money and spend it. Spreading MGTOW with complete deniability. (ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━┻

[Y_Participant 4591]

riron wrote:

Robotics engineer here. Many of the things here are correct, but also somewhat misleading.

Great to have you on board. I hope you and more people in this field can contribute to what is going on in this area from a personal perspective.

I used to be a systems programmer quite some time ago. I agree that there are pluses and minusus for the software developers.

However my research (I will post this is Part 2) shows that replaceable labour is in data-intensive and repetitive areas.
Examples – receptionists, front desk service at hotels, airlines and administrative. law clerks, factory workers, design engineers (non-IT), sales staff, accountants, bank clerks, fast food staff.

Hope you can join in in Part 2!

[Author]

Posts