I have one question for Yumbo. If this perspective is true, and Trump didn’t actually do anything, and had no influence at all, then why didn’t this happen under the Obama presidency? Why did we not see this happen for 8 years under Obama? All that time China apparently had no influence over North Korea? But if Trump wasn’t even at least indirectly involved, we would have seen this sometime in the last 9 years.
Thanks for the valid questions. I am in and out of the forums so I reply when I can.
I can answer this for you from what I know of China’s political and economic landscape.
The main problem China had was to convince and prove to NK that China could provide a guarantee of NK’s safety in the event of a US military attack. This took time to fulfill.
This guarantee (or proof of it) could not be done during Obama’s tenure as China was not strong enough militarily or economically. Plus politics within China was split as to what course of action should be followed.
China is now in 2018 strong enough to offer strategic protection with a President who guarantees the outcome – so NK has agreed (with more than a bit of arm twisting).
The US Deep State pivot to China and Asia actually happened during Obama’s presidency. Trump is continuing the position of the Deep State after Obama completed his term. The control of American foreign policy is not with the US President. Everyone in world politics knows this.
That is the short answer – the details for the reasoning are given below
China looks at the strategic situation set by the Deep State and not at short-term non-events like Trump or Obama. China responds to the Deep State threats in its own way and this may or may not coincide with US timelines.
China’s own long-term safety was never in question. China’s security at that time was guaranteed by Putin’s Russia as well as being the production house for US goods and the saviour of the US recession-hit economy after 2008 – but that is another long story. However NK did not have any such guarantees on a repeat of 1950.
China had never wanted NK to become nuclear. This was an undertaking by NK alone as a response to large scale SK-US naval drills in the Pacific and Washington continually calling for war. China’s view is NK’s position destabilises the region without any real advantage, with the possibility of causing military skirmishes and making China’s military preparations for regional security more difficult.
During Obama’s tenure China was still actively urging for reconciliation through diplomatic means. This included NK’s nuclear programme. But from a position of military and economic weakness, not strength, in protecting NK.
It is commonly understood that China and Russia would not allow NK to fall but this does not mean massive damage could not have resulted from a limited war. Plus economically all of Asia and the US would suffer. A war in SK and Japan would not be in America’s interests and this is understood by Washington as well.
Therefore the US in practical terms are unable to engage in a military confrontation. But that does not stop the warmongering in the hope that something will give way. But this is the way of the Deep State. Irrational and ignorant.
The NK regime are well aware of the fate of Libya and Iraq. Regardless of how many times NK has come to the table to sign a peace treaty the US has always refused. This is on record and documented by reliable media sources. Therefore NK actually believed the US will one day attack as they were not convinced China-Russia would be able to fully protect the NK state.
(Both China and NK know that NK is not the ultimate target – it is China itself that the US cannot allow to become an economic superpower. NK is only a stepping stone for further US escalation of instability on the Korean Peninsula – similar to what happened in 1950 at the start of the Korean War.)
China has two issues to overcome to convince NK that China’s military support is there when needed and economic reintegration with NK’s neighbours can be achieved.
These two issues are:
1. Political and military clout internally and externally – China as a guarantor of regional security
During Obama’s presidency China had internal political divisions on how the country should be run and what the country’s position should be regarding the US and EU. There was a political power struggle going on between Xi and others in the party who supported North Korea. Not until last September when Xi became the undisputed leader of China and removed his opponents could he act to fulfill his goals to directly pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear arsenal. We will have to wait for exactly what China means by that.
During Obama’s tenure China needed to bolster its military and Navy in the South China Sea to oversee the security of its borders and also to NK’s position if it was attacked. The main elements of this defense arc have been tested in place in March 2018. The PLN South China Naval Fleet conducted exercises with over 48 warships, 76 fighter jets and 10,000 sailors including submarines and supported by their outer island group defensive perimeters holding ship-killing hypersonic missiles.
This would give the PLN the ability to protect itself, NK and other related assets from a possible American attack or false flag as what happened to start the Vietnam War. Recently American commanders have stated the US would not able able to carry out conventional military strikes in the SCS without unacceptable losses.
The ability of NK itself to cause extreme damage to SK and Japan is not questioned by anyone. Whatever the western press say, NK will not attack SK in this way unless attacked itself. So for all purposes a North Asian stalemate is in place at the present time. Other regional countries have no stomach to get involved.
It is not in the interests of both SK and Japan to be involved in a proxy war for the US that would be as bad as the prior one. However the American pressure is usually too great. Until China could engage and neutralise the US Fleet directly if required – SK and Japan had no option but to follow the US without question – until now.
This regional security requirement by China has been fulfilled in March 2018, so SK and Japan have compelling reasons not to follow up on any escalations required by Washington if Washington cannot guarantee their safety. They can take the initiative to wind tensions down – which exactly what SK is doing directly with NK and Japan giving tacit support to the peace framework. Note the US was never in the peace process between NK and SK. That is because the US does not want one but has no choice. How times have changed!
2. Economic clout to resist and overcome US economic sanctions while building up Asian trade through OBOR
This required two complementary and parallel actions to directly and indirectly help NK, SK and Japan economically to play ball with China. It is the current economic positions of SK and Japan that will be lost in a war scenario. China stops that from happening as well as throwing in long-term benefits the US is clearly unable to.
a. To ensure Asian allies of the US lose out on trade and economic benefits if they followed the US position to escalate tensions. Debarment from the development of the North Asia OBOR and other trade framework that China and Russia have put in place. Japan only joined OBOR in January 2018. This also elevates NK into a production and mining powerhouse for Japan and SK under the OBOR. Japan and SK will be fools to say no.
b. To put into practice a US dollar energy alternative for trade and conduct trade and loans in local currencies or in Chinese yuan.
To ensure an oil futures contract in petroyuan – this was put in place in Feb 2018.
The petroyuan is expected to start trading in June 2018 as the alternative to the US dollar.
To ensure US sanctions do not hit the payment system of trade by using Chinese CIPS and not SWIFT.
To ensure loans to NK through the AIIB and bypassing the IMF.
All these systems are almost in place. China can give confidence to NK that whatever happens – NK’s future is assured outside of the bygone US unipolar world order.
It does not matter to China who is in the White House. Washington’s threats would have meant nothing if China chose to continue trade with NK or vetoed the motion for sanctions in the UN. China pushed North Korea when it suited China and not for any other reason.
It appears through the MSM that Trump has cornered everyone. Let people think that. The reality is that Washington’s position in Asia since the Vietnam Era is one of impotence.
Those who are deeply involved with the situation in North Asia do not give any credence to Trump’s threats or that of Washington. It is only China’s (and Russia’s) position that is of importance.
Hope this clarifies some parts of the situation. Again this is a very large topic and I can only give very limited and sweeping responses. Some people may compare me to the MSM or such – that is ok. As long as the men on this site do their own homework they can follow up on the facts.
